Projected 2025 MLB Win Totals: Can Alex Bregman, Garrett Crochet Carry Red Sox Back to AL East Prominence?
Projected 2025 MLB Win Totals: Can Alex Bregman, Garrett Crochet Carry Red Sox Back to AL East Prominence?
The 2025 MLB season is about to get underway on Thursday afternoon, and so will the quest for the playoffs for several improving teams. Can the Cincinnati Reds and Boston Red Sox do enough this year to overcome last season's shortcomings?
The Sox have a revamped pitching staff with several new talented arms, while the Reds have a young core of rising stars in the batters box. Let's break down their chances to hit win totals in 2025, and potentially make the playoffs as MLB Opening Day gets everything going.
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2025 MLB Win Totals
Cincinnati Reds Win Total: 79.5
The Cincinnati Reds showed promise at times in the summer of 2024, but fell short of their goals near the end, finishing at 77-85. They have a plethora of young talent on the roster, and now it's time to put it all together. Elly De La Cruz has been the spark plug for this lineup, batting leadoff for most of the year and bolting around the bases.
The odds for the Reds to make the playoffs are set at +250, giving just a 28.6% chance on the implied odds. In general, the average wins needed to make the playoffs is around 89, and with the slightly expanded MLB format, it's down to around 86. Though the Mets, Braves, and Diamondbacks all tied for 89 last year, and only the first two got in.
So the Reds would essentially have to grab 6-9 more wins than their total in order to make the playoffs. They finished 77-85 last year, so it's not totally out of the question, but will definitely need a stronger effort. They started off relatively solid, but a 9-18 May record derailed them a bit, and the 12-17 August record was the nail in the coffin. With all of their young pieces working on better chemistry this year, they can build past some of those early struggles.
Boston Red Sox Win Total: 86.5
The Boston Red Sox come into 2025 with a refreshed starting rotation to lead them back to prominence in the AL East. Unfortunately, not every starter is beginning the year healthy, with Brayan Bello, Kutter Crawford, Lucas Giolito all finding themselves on the short term IL.
However, newcomers Garrett Crochet and Walker Buehler are healthy starters to go along with Tanner Houck. It looks like former minor-leaguer Sean Newcomb will fill out one of the final rotation spots while the top three guys rehab. Regardless of the early season situation, this is a strong crop of starters that can carry this team a long way.
Not to mention the addition of Alex Bregman on a 3-year, $120 million deal that will bolster their offense. The Sox were already top-10 in nearly every major offensive category last season, including hits, RBI's, HRs, batting average, and more. But they still missed the playoffs by ending up a dead-even .500. They were top-3 worst in striking out, but Bregman should help that out, with a career strikeout rate of only around 12%.
The pitching staff was also in the bottom half of the league in many major categories, including a 4.04 ERA and 10th-fewest strikeouts as a unit. With Crochet, Buehler, and Giolito in the mix, that has a great promise for change. Crochet was arguably the best strikeout artist in the MLB last year, racking up over 200 before getting shut down near the end of the season by the struggling White Sox.
Unlike the Reds, the Red Sox have -170 odds to make the playoffs. The AL East will be strong again with the Yankees, but they have a real shot at winning the division with this roster. They are +240 to win the East in the second position, straddling the Yankees (+165) and Orioles (+300). It won't be easy, but with this rotation and the collection of new bats, they should find themselves in the mix for at least the wild card.
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Peter is a sports writer focused on coverage and analysis of college football and basketball, as well as the NFL and other major sports. A graduate of the University of Missouri School of Journalism, he has been writing sports articles for the last decade.
After working for ClutchPoints, Peter joined oddschecker in 2023. He is a New York sports superfan and is fluent in the sports betting industry.