Valero Texas Open Preview: PGA Tour Predictions, Best Bets

PGA Tour Best Bets: Valero Texas Open

The Valero Texas Open is the final PGA Tour event teeing off before The Masters gets underway as the first major of the 2025 PGA Tour season next week. Hosted at TPC San Antonio (Oaks Course), this is a par 72 that runs over 7,400 yards, featuring Bermudagrass greens, two-inch rough, with a mixture of narrow and wide fairways.

Last year's Valero Texas Open saw Akshay Bhatia record a dramatic win in a playoff against Denny McCarthy. Oddsmakers are currently valuing Ludvig Aberg as the betting favorite at +1200, followed by Tommy Fleetwood (+1600), Corey Conners (+1600), Patrick Cantlay (+1800), along with Jordan Spieth and Hideki Matsuyama at +2000 odds.

PGA handicapper Matt MacKay is here with his PGA Tour best bets to tail during the Valero Texas Open with the latest odds. Each of these best bets is a one-unit wager. Follow Matt's X account for more PGA betting analysis and free picks throughout the 2025 PGA Tour season.

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VALERO TEXAS OPEN ODDS

VALERO TEXAS OPEN DATE, TIME, AND WHERE TO WATCH

• Date: Thursday, April 3 - Sunday, April 6, 2025
• Time: 8:15 AM - 7 PM ET
• How to Watch: ESPN+, Golf Channel, NBC, Peacock

Click here for complete Valero Texas Open Odds

VALERO TEXAS OPEN BEST BETS

AKSHAY BHATIA ROUND 1 SCORE - UNDER 70.5 (-125)

We'll start with a Round 1 Score prop and invest in the Valero Texas Open defending champion, Akshay Bhatia, to go under 70.5 on Thursday. This means we need Bhatia to finish -2-under-par or lower in Round 1.

Bhatia is a great ball-striker. He's ranked 20th in total strokes gained, including 43rd on approach, ninth putting, and 27th in driving accuracy. The 23-year-old American is also 26th at finding greens in regulation at over 70 percent, 26th in scoring average, 18th on par 4s, and seventh in birdie average (4.73) per round.

This feels like a value at -125 odds. Let's bet a unit on Bhatia to start hot at TPC San Antonio, going under 70.5 strokes in Round 1.

18 HOLE MATCHBET (ROUND 1) - J.T. POSTON VS. SAMUEL STEVENS (-110)

Sam Stevens is an underdog against J.T. Poston in a Round 1 18 Hole Matchbet market on FanDuel Sportsbook. Stevens has played TPC San Antonio twice, carding a runner-up finish in 2023 and a T18 finish in 2024.

Poston doesn't have a top-ten finish through nine events played, only recording a top-25 finish twice this season. He ranks 102nd in Round 1 Scoring Average and 91st in total strokes gained metrics entering Valero.

Stevens has a runner-up finish this year at The Farmers Insurance Open and just logged a T18 finish at the Houston Open last weekend. The 28-year-old American is 31st in SG: Off-the-Tee, 26th scrambling, and 37th on par 4s.

Neither of these golfers have a strong Round 1 scoring average, which could be why oddsmakers are valuing Poston as a slight favorite to win Round 1 at -115 odds. I think the wrong golfer is favored here.

Let's back Stevens to beat Poston in their 18 Hole Matchbet in Round 1 at -110 odds. Stevens has had success playing TPC San Antonio in past years, while also enjoying a better overall start in 2025 compared to Poston.

3 BALL (ROUND 1) - DAHMEN|SIGG|PEREZ (+150)

We'll grab one more Round 1 prop and target Victor Perez to win his 3 Ball matchup against Joel Dahmen and Greyson Sigg. Perez is red-hot right now, recording T18-T22-T18 finishes in each of his last three starts on the PGA Tour.

Perez ranks 43rd in total strokes gained, including 43rd off-the-tee, 55th on approach, and ninth total driving. He's 13th in driving accuracy, so he's going to have an advantage over Dahmen and Sigg by avoiding bad lies in the rough off-the-tee.

The Frenchman has a 68.9 percent greens in regulation rate, 38th on the PGA Tour. Perez is also 31st in scrambling, 32nd in scoring average, and 37th on par 4s.

He's 19th in Round 1 Scoring Average, so let's back the favorite, in this 3-ball matchup and take Victor Perez to win at +150 odds.

PATRICK CANTLAY TOP 20 FINISH (-125)

Our final wager is in the finishing position market. Patrick Cantlay will make his debut at TPC San Antonio ahead of The Masters in good form.

Cantlay has not missed a cut through six events this season. He's only finished outside the top 20 twice, T33 at Pebble Beach and T31 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational.

Known as "Patty Ice", Cantlay ranks 13th in total strokes gained. This includes 47th off-the-tee, 33rd on approach, 35th putting, and third for greens in regulation at a blistering 72.9 percent rate.

He's fifth in putting average, 18th in scoring average, eighth for par 4 holes, and sixth in birdie average. There's hardly any area of Cantlay's game that ranks poorly, so I'm willing to lay a bit of juice and bet on Cantlay to record his fifth top 20 finish in 2025 at -125 odds.