Kai Kara-France vs. Steve Erceg Prediction: Can Kai Kara-France Upset Steve Erceg at UFC 305?
Kai Kara-France vs. Steve Erceg Prediction: Can Kai Kara-France Upset Steve Erceg at UFC 305?
Flyweight contenders throw down in the co-main of UFC 305: Du Plessis vs. Adesanya, when Kai Kara-France and Steve Erceg enter the octagon. This fight between former contenders will be between the number four and number seven ranked flyweight fighters, potentially putting the winner one step from a shot back at the belt.
Kai Kara-France vs. Steve Erceg DATE, TIME AND WHERE TO WATCH
- Date: August 17, 2024
- Time: 10:00 p.m. ET
- Where to Watch: ESPN+
Kai Kara-France vs. Steve Erceg ODDS
- Moneyline Odds: Kara-France (+155), Erceg (-180)
- Total Odds: O 2.5 (-250), U 2.5 (+200)
- Will Fight Go the Distance?: Yes (-215), No (+190)
Kai Kara-France vs. Steve Erceg Prediction
Steve Erceg opened as a sizable favorite at -205. However, his line has dropped to around -170, with the comeback on Kara-France coming in at +150.
To be honest, seeing the odds, especially at the opening price, surprised me a little bit. Steve Erceg is definitely a rising name that has gained a lot of traction, but it seems like people are forgetting just how good Kara-France really is.
It’s easy to look at Kai’s last two fights and count him out, but the one loss was to Brandon Moreno, one of the top flyweight fighters in the world, and the other was a split decision loss that he arguably won against one of the best prospects in the division and even the UFC right now. His most recent split decision loss was a very controversial one, with many people thinking that Kai actually won, including myself. However, while he didn’t get the nod, it appears that his two-fight skid is enough to drive the line on this fight up.
Steve Erceg is an excellent wrestler and grappler, but if Kai can use his takedown defense and keep this a striking match at range, he is very live as an upset candidate. Erceg is susceptible to being hit on the feet and his striking is still coming along. Erceg has looked better in each fight as he has gone along in his career, but Kai is still an elite striker in the flyweight division who is only been beaten by the best of the best.
I also can’t help but think of what headspace Erceg is in after his first loss in the UFC. Kai has now lost multiple times in the UFC to the cream of the crop, and he knows how to bounce back as we have seen him do before. However, Steve was just rushed to a title shot after just three UFC fights and suffered his first loss in almost 8 years and his first in the UFC. It will be interesting to see how Steve bounces back, as sometimes fighters do not come back after a big fight like that the same right away.
This line on France is simply absurd to me, as I think this fight should be closer to even money. I think Kai can keep this one standing and pick Erceg apart, potentially even finishing this one. Take Kai at an excellent price, as this one may look like a head-scratcher when it’s all said and done.
Pick: Kai Kara-France ML +150 CLICK HERE TO SEE WHICH SPORTSBOOK HAS THE BEST ODDS
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Article Author
Ben Rajavuori is a handicapper out of Minneapolis, MN. He has been creating sports content for almost four years now and is an expert in all things NFL, MLB, NBA, UFC, and NCAAB. Ben thrives on diving deep into statistics to find the best angle on every bet. You can follow him on Twitter @WeBeatTheSpread.