Jon Jones vs. Stipe Miocic Prediction, Betting Pick, Latest Odds for UFC 309

Jon Jones vs. Stipe Miocic Prediction, Betting Pick, Latest Odds for UFC 309

Jon Jones arrives to this fight with his 27-1 record, blemished only by one DQ in 2009. He has fought just once in the last four years, with his career hampered by injuries and investigations. That last match came in 2023, where he made quick work of Ciryl Gane in a first round submission at UFC 385. Flash forward to now, Jones is back in the ring again and looking for more blood.

His opponent will be Stipe Miocic, a 42-year-old veteran with a 20-4 career record. He hasn't fought since 2021 either, seemingly walking away from the spotlight after a knockout loss to Francis Ngannou. That fight was a rematch of their 2018 meeting, where Miocic defeated the heavyweight legend by decision. His prime may have passed him by, but he has an impressive resume and will look to outlast Jones tonight in this main event at UFC 309.

Jon Jones vs. Stipe Miocic Odds

Jon Jones vs. Stipe Miocic Date, Time and Where To Watch

• Date: November 16, 2024
• Time: 10:00 pm ET - 12:30 am ringwalk
• Where To Watch: ESPN+

Jon Jones vs. Stipe Miocic Prediction

While Miocic never officially retired after 2021, he hasn't attempted to fight anyone besides Jones in the last three years. At his age, he's only taking bouts that he waited a long time for, and this clash with Jones should have happened years ago. Stipe finally gets his shot tonight, but he's a heavy underdog at +460 odds, and we have no idea what kind of fighting shape he is in after three years away from the octogon.

Miocic is not big into submissions, and has won the majority of his fights by knockout or decision. Meanwhile, Jones also wins a lot by decision, but has found success with the sub over the years, and demonstrated that against Gane in his last match. He should look to pull a similar move against the aging Miocic after tiring him out, and overpowering him with his well-known talent and force. UFC boss Dana White loves to emphasize that Jon Jones is the best pound-for-pound fighter of all time, and it will be on display tonight as the 37-year-old continues his carefully-crafted return.

We aren't going to take him at expensive -600 odds, though he should be able to defeat Miocic in the first two rounds based on their current form. That might not have been the case five years ago, but father time is undefeated, especially in the UFC. Instead, we will roll with Jon Jones to win by submission at +220 odds, the second method of victory choice after knockout (+135). Jones obviously has a powerful punch, but he should be able to get the slower Miocic wrapped up after a few shots are thrown.

Jon Jones vs. Stipe Miocic Pick

• Pick: Jones by Submission (+220) Click here to see complete Jones vs. Miocic UFC 309 odds