Women's NCAA Tournament Perfect Bracket Watch: Odds of Survival for Perfect Bracket Ahead of LSU vs. UCLA

The 2025 Women's NCAA Tournament has reached the Elite Eight after Saturday's exciting Sweet 16 wrapped up. Notre Dame fell as a 7.5-point favorite as the 3-seed against Hailey Van Lith and 2-seed TCU on Saturday afternoon. It was one of the few upsets of the entire tournament, with the Women's bracket following the heavily chalk path of the Men's tournament.

Because of all the high-seed victories so far, there were actually seven perfect brackets on Saturday morning, before the Horned Frogs eliminated all but one. That user ended up surviving through the rest of the Sweet 16 games, and has made it to Sunday's Elite Eight with the furthest-ever recorded perfect bracket still intact.

According to the NCAA, 33 users predicted the first two rounds correctly, before trimming down to seven after one day of the Sweet 16, and now landing at only one through all three first rounds. The true odds of a perfect bracket with some knowledge of the teams and mathematical advantages is still just one in 28 billion, so with just seven games away from perfection, this is truly shocking.

So what needs to happen for this bracket to stay flawless in the Elite Eight? Let's go through the scenarios and discuss the Women's NCAA Tournament latest odds ahead of the two showdowns on Sunday afternoon.

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2025 Women's NCAA Tournament Championship Odds

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2025 Women's NCAA Tournament Perfect Bracket Watch

1 PM Sunday 3/30: No. 2 Duke vs. No. 1 South Carolina (-9.5)

The first matchup on the docket is No. 1 South Carolina vs. No. 2 Duke, where Dawn Staley's Gamecocks are a -9.5 favorite. The user has South Carolina selected to win it all, so she should be pretty safe here with a -470 moneyline that gives SC an 82.5% chance of winning.

3 PM Sunday 3/30: No. 3 LSU (+4.5) vs. No. 1 UCLA

The main determinant of this bracket surviving is in the second matchup of the day, when Kim Mulkey's No. 3 LSU Tigers take on the No. 1 UCLA Bruins, and the perfect bracket is predicting an upset. The Tigers are down to a +4.5 underdog after opening up at +5.5, a sign that some betting action is backing Mulkey's experience in big games. LSU is led by Aneesah Morrow and Flau'Jae Johnson, averaging 18 points apiece for the Tigers, and they'll need every point against UCLA.

Johnson returned from injury in the first round of the NCAA Tournament after about a month away with a leg issue. She was subsequently injured once again in the fourth quarter of the Sweet 16 win over NC State on Friday following a collision, but should be ready to play on Sunday afternoon. Her team managed to win despite a 1-8 shooting performance that yielded just three points, with other stars stepping up.

LSU will need all hands on deck to stop the powerhouse of Lauren Betts in this Elite Eight battle, with the First-Team All American center averaging over 20 points a game. She was also named the Big Ten Defensive Player of the Year in 2025, and has the Bruins motoring towards the Final Four as the 1-seed favorite.

The Bruins are 33-2, Big Ten Tournament Champions, and their only losses came against JuJu Watkins and USC, twice. These teams don't have a ton of common opponents, but UCLA beat No. 1 South Carolina by 15 back in November, while LSU lost to the Gamecocks by double digits in January.

This is certainly still a winnable game by all means, and the LSU Tigers are loaded with NCAA Tournament experience, now on their third-straight deep run with Kim Mulkey. UCLA actually lost to LSU last year in the Sweet 16, holding Lauren Betts to just 14 points. Mulkey may draw up a similar gameplan as the Bruins are thirsty for revenge, potentially knowing how to stop their star once again.

All eyes will be on this LSU vs. UCLA matchup at 3 PM on ABC, with the perfect bracket hanging in the balance for one final upset.

7 PM Monday 3/31: No. 2 TCU vs. No. 1 Texas (-7.5)

If LSU gets it done, the perfect bracket watch will move to tomorrow's last two Elite Eight games, where the user has the No. 1 Texas Longhorns over the No. 2 TCU Horned Frogs, who already pulled an upset to get here. Texas is favored by 7.5 points, and should be able to get past Van Lith and the spunky Frogs, with a 76% chance of winning.

9 PM Monday 3/31: No. 2 UConn (-14.5) vs. No. 1 USC

In the final Elite Eight matchup, the user has 2-seed UConn over 1-seed USC, which will be an easy win as a -14.5 favorite with Paige Bueckers taking on a Trojans team that lost JuJu Watkins to an ACL injury. This would have been a great game if the USC superstar was able to play, but now UConn has a -1400 moneyline, giving them a 93% implied chance of cruising to victory.

Women's Perfect Bracket Final Four Preview

Lastly, the perfect bracket has UConn over LSU and South Carolina over Texas in the Final Four, with the Gamecocks beating the Huskies in the National Championship. According to our latest Women's NCAA Championship odds right now, the Huskies are actually a -110 favorite to win it all, while the Gamecocks are back at +200. But it's important to contextualize the scenarios here, because UConn is going to be a heavy favorite in their final two games with easier opponents, going against an injured team and a weaker-seeded team. South Carolina has two tough games against Duke and Texas, making their path of arrival slightly harder. While they may end up as a slight underdog in the National Title against UConn, it'll be a lot closer +200 on the moneyline.

After all that analysis and odds breakdown, it's safe to say that this Women's NCAA Tournament perfect bracket has a real shot. The user really needs LSU to pull the upset over UCLA today, but the rest of the remaining selections are setting up to be mathematically beneficial according to oddsmakers. With no perfect bracket ever occurring, this could be shaping up as a thrilling chase for history in Women's March Madness.

Women's Perfect Bracket Odds & Probability

If you really wanted to know how good these chances are, you could parlay the results of the Elite Eight winners that the user selected.

• UConn ML -1400
• South Carolina ML -470
• Texas ML -320
• LSU ML +170

This would yield a four-leg parlay of about +356 odds, so a 22% chance of winning all four games. That's really not that bad, and it feels better to have several heavy favorites, while focusing on the one underdog. If all these games were even odds tossups, it would be a totally different story.

If we use hypothetical future odds to project UConn around a -250 favorite in their Final Four game, and South Carolina at about -200, the odds of the parlay move up to +850, giving the user around a 10% chance to be perfect going into the National Championship, again, not that shabby for a now six-leg parlay.

Finally, you would have to factor in South Carolina around a +125 underdog in the National Championship against UConn, taking this last leg all the way up to +2050, or a 4.5% chance of the entire thing happening.

While 4.5% doesn't sound that high, if you take the seven outcomes apart, there is a very realistic chance here. Of course, the entire dream could be over by 5 PM on Sunday if LSU can't pull the upset, but to even be alive at this stage of the game is statistically incredible, and college basketball fans around the country will be pulling for this perfection.