NCAA Tournament Paths to the National Championship: Final Four Preview, Title Futures Breakdown
NCAA Tournament Paths to the National Championship: Final Four Preview, Title Futures Breakdown
The Final Four is finally here!
Yes, this is the chalkiest Final Four we’ve seen in a decade and a half, but make no mistake, this all-one-seed Final Four can bring big victories and career firsts. What’s in store for this year’s Final Four? We’ll take a look at each team’s path to the Final Four, odds for the weekend and title futures.
Get your first month of oddschecker+ right now for just $0.99. Don't miss out on this March Madness deal!
NCAA Tournament Paths to the Championship
Duke vs. Houston: Duke -4.5; O/U 136.5
Before the start of March Madness, I wrote a piece on the top defense in the tournament, and it’s no surprise that two of the top defenses are facing off in the Final Four.
Houston boasts the top KenPom defensive ranking in the field while Duke is fifth. Whereas points are expected to fly in the Auburn-Florida matchup, Duke and Houston should give us a hard-fought, lower-scoring matchup of two truly elite defenses.
While we may not get the wild, high-scoring affair of Auburn and Florida, expect Duke and Houston to put on an impressive offensive show as well. Duke features one of the top, most efficient offenses in the NCAA, and while Houston has been a bit underwhelming at times, they are still a strong overall offensive unit.
Duke’s path to the Final Four was as flawless as possible, beginning with First and Second Round dominance. While Arizona was able to push Duke and get within five points towards the end of the game, the Blue Devils closed out strong and never relinquished their lead throughout the entire second half. In the Elite Eight, they dominated throughout the game. At this point, Duke feels invincible - and the odds back it up.
Houston’s performance throughout the tournament has been impressive as well. The final scores don’t tell the whole story. While some of their performances - games against Gonzaga and Purdue, in particular - were competitive, Houston maintained control of the games throughout the second half, and while there were close calls, they never relinquished their lead and pulled through.
What to Expect
Oddschecker’s projections have the Blue Devils as a five-point favorite with a projected point total of 137. The most intriguing part of this matchup is the expectations for Cooper Flagg. Flagg’s Round One performance was solid, playing just 22 minutes in the blowout victory. Round Two was solid, and the Sweet 16 was truly impeccable with 30 points going 9-19, 3-5 from three-point. However, the Elite Eight was a bit below his standard. While Flagg had 16 points, it was on 6-16 from the field, playing the majority of the game. The matchup with Houston is a chance to bounce back and elevate his game against what will be his toughest defensive opponent of the season.
Auburn vs. Florida: Florida -2.5; O/U 159.5
Auburn’s outlook heading into the season was perhaps the most underwhelming of all top seeds, despite being the overall Number 1 seed, stumbling into March Madness as a popular upset pick for a potential Cinderella. Despite the skepticism, the Tigers held strong. While some of the games have been closer than you’d like to see, they’ve typically maintained control and composure and look solid heading into their matchup with Florida, proving very worthy of their seeding.
Florida’s path to the Final Four has come with more drama. The Gators were dangerously close to being upset in the Second Round by UConn, squeaking by with the 77-75 victory. They bounced back well with a dominating performance against Maryland in the Sweet 16. The Elite Eight game was another close back and forth matchup, tied with under two minutes left in the game against Texas Tech. To be fair, drama was expected for Florida with a stacked region. Their resiliency and determination prevailed, and they’re heading into this matchup truly battle-tested.
What to Expect
With the extreme number of SEC teams in the tournament and their strong performances, we were bound to get an SEC Final Four matchup one way or another. Lucky for us, that gives us the opportunity to look back and analyze the prior Auburn-Florida matchup. Back in early February, Florida defeated Auburn 90-81, snapping a 14-game win streak for the Tigers, with a final score that is a bit more deceiving than the reality of the game. Florida separated and dominated the entire second half, leading by over 20 points at times.
The expectation from the market is that Florida will win, and Oddscheckers’ projections are in line with the market, leaning slightly to the under at 158 points projected. Florida’s dominating performance in February does give you pause on Auburn, and Auburn’s lackluster performance in the SEC tournament prevented us from seeing a rematch earlier. However, don’t write off the Tigers. March Madness is a different beast, and Auburn has had a truly strong tournament. It wouldn’t be the first time we saw a team lose during the regular season to turn around and dominate in a March Madness rematch. Expect a much closer matchup this time around.
2025 National Championship Title Futures
Duke is currently -110 with Houston at +425.
Florida is currently +300 to win the title with Auburn at +500.
The odds do track. Florida handled Auburn with ease in February, and Duke has been the most dominant force throughout the entire tournament. It’s tough to bet against Duke. The odds aren’t ideal for our betting purposes, but they truly are the clear favorite with no flaw in their game. They were my clear Championship pick, and it’s hard to argue in favor of anyone else.
However…
If you are looking to make a spicy bet, Auburn at +500 is what I find most intriguing. While it was controversial, they were the overall Number 1 Seed for a reason - while their end-of-season stumble was frustrating, their dominance through one of the most difficult schedules in the entire NCAA was highly impressive. Their side of the bracket was a true test of will, and if they manage to make it past Florida, I can see a scenario where they come out on top, giving Bruce Pearl his first title.
Another optional bet for those with strong March Madness brackets that picked Duke for the Championship is a potential hedge bet on Houston. If the Cougars manage to beat Duke, logic would point to them winning the title. Think of it as your “just in case” bet.
COLLEGE BASKETBALL ODDS & PICKS
Tera Roberts is a fantasy analyst focusing on redraft, dynasty, and DFS. She's an avid fantasy football player with more than 15 years of experience playing fantasy sports and she's worked with some of the industry’s top websites. Tera is a Clemson alum and Tiger diehard, but she promises to be extremely unbiased ... except for when she talks about Hunter Renfrow — the best route runner in the NFL.