Steve Ryder backs a big outsider in the opening race on Grand National day at Aintree.
13:20 Aintree
We've reached the final day of the Aintree Festival, with everything building towards the Grand National which is run at 4:00 this year and is the final race of ITV’s coverage. We've got you covered with all the free bets for the race here.
We're all set with the final 34 runners for the £1 million race. All 34 from the confirmation stage on Monday stood their ground at declaration time, leaving Duffle Coat at #34. Shakem Up'Arry, Roi Mage, Favori De Champdou and Fantastic Lady were the leading reserves to miss out..
What to Expect on Day 3 of the Aintree Festival
Prior to the Grand National, there are two Grade 1 contests with the Mersey Novices’ Hurdle and the Liverpool Hurdle as well as two William Hill sponsored handicaps.
Following the Grand National, there is the Grade 1 Maghull Novices’ Chase and the Grade 2 Bumper that concludes the three-day festival.
Aintree Day 3 Racecard
- 1:20 William Hill Handicap Hurdle (3m)
- 1:55 Grade 1 Mersey Novices’ Hurdle (2m4f)
- 2:30 William Hill Handicap Chase (3m1f)
- 3:05 Grade 1 Liverpool Hurdle (3m)
- 4:00 Grand National (4m2f)
- 5:00 Grade 1 Maghull Novices’ Chase (2m)
- 5:35 Grade 2 Bumper (2m)
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Today's Best Bets from Steve Ryder
1:20 Aintree - Push The Button - Advised @ 20/1 (0.5pt ew)
The Nigel Twiston-Davies trained PUSH THE BUTTON (best priced at 20/1) once again caught the eye over an intermediate last time when 6th in the Martin Pipe Handicap Hurdle and the winner Wodhooh did no harm for the form when 2nd in the Grade 1 Aintree Hurdle on Thursday.
Push The Button stayed on to finish 5th off a mark of 132 over 2m4f at Cheltenham in October before finishing 2nd beaten only a head off a mark of 131 at Windsor in January over 3 miles.
Push The Button outran odds of 80/1 to finish 6th last time off a mark of 135 staying on from an uncompromising position over a trip of 2m4½f. With Sam Twiston-Davies back on board over this 3 mile trip, he should outrun his odds of with up to seven places available.
13:55 Aintree
1:55 Aintree - Horaces Pearl - Advised @ 7/1 (0.5pt ew)
The presence of Lulamba changes the complexion of this race but I am willing to take a chance that the unbeaten HORACES PEARL (best priced at 7/1) can extend his winning sequence.
Victorious in the Grade 2 bumper at this meeting last season, he beat stablemate Tripoli Flyer who has since won the Dovecote Novices’ Hurdle at Kempton and is rated 142.
Horaces Pearl has won an ordinary maiden hurdle and a novice hurdle under a penalty on his two starts this season but has no doubt had this race as his target for the whole season.
Connor Brace, who has ridden him to win on all five of his previous victories, retains the ride and he looks the most likely to upset the favourite.
14:05 Newcastle
2:05 Newcastle - Luminaries - Advised @ 5/2 (1pt)
Away from the action at Aintree, the one who catches my eye is LUMINARIES (forecast to be priced at 5/2) who has been transformed by the application of cheekpieces on his previous two starts.
The Ewan Whillans trained eight-year-old defied odds of 20/1 to win over this course and distance on his penultimate start off a mark of 74 before following up over this course and distance last time by six lengths off a mark of 77.
The handicapper has raised Luminaries 9lbs for that success but he clearly relishes these conditions and should prove hard to beat in the same grade.
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Key Races to Watch on Day 3 at Aintree
Alongside the Grand National, the Liverpool Hurdle is the big race on Day 3. It was upgraded to a Grade 1 contest in 2010 at a time when Big Buck’s won it for four consecutive seasons between 2009 and 2012.
With 16 of the previous 20 winners having run at the Cheltenham Festival, it will be interesting to see how last year’s winner Strong Leader gets on having skipped the festival to prioritise trying to retain his crown.
With Irish trained runners filling the first six positions in the Stayers’ Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival, it will be interesting to see the final field with some of those likely to heading to Punchestown instead.
Key Aintree Stats & Trends for Day 3
Mersey Novices’ Hurdle:
- The previous three renewals have been won by Gordon Elliott trained horses
- 25 of the previous 28 winners were aged five or six
- 21 of the previous 27 winners were in the top two of the betting
- 16 of the previous 25 winners had run at the Cheltenham Festival
- 10 of the previous 14 winners had run three or four times over hurdles
Liverpool Hurdle:
- 18 of the previous 20 winners had won a Grade 1 or 2
- 16 of the previous 20 winners had run at the Cheltenham Festival
- 16 of the previous 20 winners were aged 6-8
- 15 of the previous winners were an SP of 11/2 or shorter
- 14 of the previous 20 winners had finished 1st or 2nd at this festival previously
- 14 of the previous 20 winners had already won over 3 miles
- Nine of the previous 20 favourites have won
Maghull Novices’ Chase:
- All of the previous 16 winners were aged 6-8
- 20 of the previous 27 winners were an SP of 7/2 or shorter
- 14 of the previous 17 winners had run eight times or less over hurdles
- 13 of the previous 16 winners finished 1st or 2nd last time
- Six of the previous 11 winners were trained in Ireland (3 bypassed Cheltenham)
- Four of the previous 13 winners were trained by Nicky Henderson
Grand National:
- 22 of the previous 30 winners were aged between eight and 10 but the previous nine were aged nine or younger.
- 14 of the previous 16 winners were having their first run in the race.
- 14 of the previous 19 winners had won over 3m1f or further
- 16 of the previous 28 winners returned at an SP of 14/1 or less
- Eight of the previous 13 winners had finished 1st or 2nd on their latest start
- Seven of the previous nine winners were second-season chasers
- Six of the previous nine winners had run less than 10 times over fences
- Five of the previous seven winners had won last time out
- Five of the previous seven winners wore a tongue-tie
- None of the previous 10 winners had fallen or unseated more than once, while six had never done.
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After the second round of scratches, Steve Ryder sided with Vanillier at 16/1, while he had a single point on Beauport at 33/1 back in January.
Vanillier has looked revitalised by blinkers on his previous two starts and did brilliantly the finish 3rd in the Cross Country Chase at the Cheltenham Festival despite taking the wrong course. He is off the same rating of 147 which he finished 2nd in 2023 and he looks sure to be involved in the finish.
