The Masters

Make no mistake, I want Rory McIlroy to win this Masters. Here's a reminder of my top 10 trends for winning around Augusta National - he is one of just two players to hit all of them. 

What a chance the 35-year-old Irishman has of completing the Grand Slam given so many around him in the market (top 30 player guide) haven't peaked anywhere close to him in the last number of months. Perfect preparation in Texas coincides with two very impressive victories at Sawgrass and Pebble Beach.

He talked about winning at a 'Cathedral of golf' at Pebble, and there's probably only one left on that list. The price for McIlroy to win the Masters has thinned out enough not to advise betting him, and the risks probably outweigh the reward around the 6/1 mark.

However, McIlroy is the one to beat in my eyes - an opinion backed up by the bet365 community. Below you can find a table ranking most backed selections with the bookmaker.

Player % Bets on bet365
Rory McIlroy 12.88%
Ludvig Aberg 6.03%
Collin Morikawa 4.98%
Bryson DeChambeau 4.31%
Tommy Fleetwood 4.07%
Shane Lowry 3.95%
Min Woo Lee 3.69%
Scottie Scheffler 3.14%
Robert MacIntyre 3.07%
Justin Thomas 2.68%

 

The Masters Golf Betting Tips

 

Collin Morikawa 16/1 (Five Places)

This first selection has been the most difficult for me and a conundrum I have been contemplating for a few weeks as we got closer to the tournament.

That conundrum is Collin Morikawa. Part of me finds it difficult to be bullish about somebody whose last win in the United States came more than four years ago. He has notched a DP World Tour Championship, an Open Championship and the Zozo since then but a win remains elusive on home turf.

Also, more often than not multiple Major winners in the modern era tend to win their Majors in a short space of time where they peak. Morikawa did this, Schauffele did it last year, Rahm did it in quick succession and Spieth did similar.

Nearly four years have passed since his last Major victory and only the special players tend to come back and win more. Is Morikawa in that category? I'm not sure. He certainly is one of the best iron players of his generation and maybe that's enough for him to elevate himself to have a hall of fame type career.

What is undeniable are his numbers this season that make him a huge candidate for a victory here. He is the best iron player on the planet these last few months and all that has been missing is a victory. He shot the lowest score at the Tour Championship last September and has since finished runner up a couple of times, one being the Sentry and the other at Bayhill.

He lacks a little bit of distance around here but I don't think that's a big issue and instead it'll be his work with the putter that will be the difference between another top 10 or a victory. He has gained on the field both on and around the greens in his last four appearances here so doubts there can be batted away. This year we could see a dramatic improvement in his approach play and given Scheffler hasn't quite hit the same heights this year I'd argue that if anyone is to run away with this event by four or five shots, Morikawa may be the most likely.

If the putter marries with the iron play he can blitz a field and that's one of the big upsides to betting him here. It has been a long, arduous road to reach the point of decision, but we're here now and I can only hope I don't regret it.

3pts each-way C.Morikawa  16/1  (1/4 5) Bet365, BetVictor, PricedUp

Jon Rahm at 16/1 (Eight Places)

Viktor Hovland and Xander Schauffele are two characters very difficult to judge heading into the year's first Major. Hovland landed a victory last time out and still hasn't steamed in the market as many would have thought. Maybe Augusta isn't the perfect venue for his first Major victory anyhow.

Schauffele interests me a fair bit more and currently 29 on the exchange from a low of 13.5 last Summer is some drift. A scintillating display with the irons at the Valspar is the one aspect which makes him appealing here and should he show up with a lukewarm putter he could have a really good week. The price is factored into the uncertainty and he's the one I'm worried the most about leaving off the list.

Min Woo Lee remains at a backable price with his irons improving throughout the year. I expect him to figure throughout the event but the lack of Major contention may prove his undoing. A slightly erratic driver is also a worry despite there being plenty of room here.

Ultimately class tells in this event and having got his defence of this title now out of the way I expect a much better performance from Jon Rahm this time around and he's my second bet towards the top of the market.

The Spaniard enters this years event at slightly bigger odds than what he was last year when he was defending champion and is in much the same form than what he was this time 12 months ago. His finishes this year read 2-6-6-5-9 and although you can criticise the lack of a win he is remarkably consistent.

Consistency is indeed a hallmark of his Augusta record also making all eight cuts with four other top ten finishes outside his victory in 2023. The defending champion tag is a difficult one to overcome here and last year's 45th place (his worst to date here) can be somewhat overlooked.

Two LIV victories have followed and three runner up finishes in total. Make no mistake Rahm is still clearly one of the best golfers in the world, and will prove it once again on this stage sooner or later.

7th in the Open last Summer was a sign of that and he is arguably more suited to Augusta than anywhere else. He has cut a frustrated figure on the golf course at times over the last year and is maybe frustrated by the lack of progress in unifying the game.

Majors remain a big chance for him to cast his net in the somewhat unified events and I expect him to make a bold bid following a relatively ideal preparation in Miami. 

3pts each-way J.Rahm  16/1 (1/5 8) Skybet, Betfred

Shane Lowry at 33/1 (Eight Places)

Henley appeals here for many reasons and he may just have base camped perfectly for this following a top 5 in the Open last Summer. A marvelous short game married with sparkling approach numbers means he's a big threat but I can't quite get past the lack of distance from the tee. It means a lot more longer irons for Henley here and although he is clearly capable, I find a victory a little difficult to imagine.

Around similar odds Shane Lowry looks a little more capable of getting a win here and he strikes me as someone who is determined to do it. Lowry has performed reasonably well here with a best of 3rd three years ago.

That was the same year McIlory finished with a 64 which seemingly was a corner turned, certainly mentally in his already hugely successful career. Since then the 2 Irishmen have collaborated to win the Zurich together and although McIlroy has bagged more victories, Lowry has been present to witness the sprinkling of magic that could just rub off.

He went all the way with him at Pebble then they dovetailed early the first couple of days at Bayhill before Lowry was further down the field when his mate won another Players Championship. It's obvious who has the special touch right now, but don't rule out Lowry being inspired by what he has seen. Lowry was in a great position and leading at Bayhill before slumping to a third round of 76.

However, what was noticeable there was that he didn't become agitated and there looked to be a new calmness to him that has never been evident before during a bad round in big pressure moments. He may have learned that off McIlroy, much improved in that department himself and should he find himself in contention at Augusta, he may be better prepared than ever.

Lowry ranks 6th on tour this season with the irons and his short game has fairly improved compared to the last two years. He is a dogged character who is by no means satisfied with just one Major Championship and he may just go to Portrush in a few months to show off a neat little emerald blazer. 

2pts each-way S.Lowry  33/1  (1/5 8) General

Will Zalatoris at 55/1 (Seven Places)

Joaquin Niemann came into last years Masters in really good form with two recent victories on the LIV tour. 22nd place meant he wasn't disgraced but it certainly did not go to plan. The year previous he was 16th so he hits a couple of those all important trends heading into this years event.

This time he comes in with similar winning form. A win in Adelaide is good preparation I feel for the Masters but it was his victory in Singapore that is of particular interest. There he beat the field by five shots and that rout, beating Koepka into second looks a really stand out effort.

Cheltenham and Aintree aren't long over and if this was a horse race that form line, romping 5 lengths clear of his rivals would have him a lot shorter in the market. However, and I hope I don't come to regret this, a poor effort in Miami last week is enough to put me off. Doral is a volatile golf course though so those who didn't perform may be granted some grace, nevertheless he hasn't drifted to a big enough number.

It's a shade difficult to get a firm hold on Will Zalatoris but he's probably not far off a good putting week away from landing a victory.

The positive side of that coin is that he has putted fairly well at Augusta down the years, certainly a lot better than his average with that club. Runner up in 2021, 6th in 2022 then 9th last year mean he has one of the best form lines in the field in terms of course history.

His recent form is steady if a little unspectacular. Six made cuts in a row have been posted since the Sentry but it was his effort at Sawgrass that was eye catching. His irons looked to be purring there over the first three days before he come undone on the 14th in round 3 when a wedge tugged three yards too far left ended up costing him a quadruple bogey.

Two more doubles followed before the clubhouse and from being one of the favourites with just over 20 holes to play he was languishing outside the top 20.

I loved the way he was swinging the club though and his sparkling approach play continued at the Valspar but a poor week on the greens followed. His pedigree here is solid and he's one at bigger odds I'm keen to be on the right side of.

1.5pts each-way W.Zalatoris  55/1  (1/5 7) Unibet, Livescorebet, Bet MGM

Justin Rose at 100/1 (Eight Places)

Robert MacIntyre is another who could go really well this week and previous finishes of 23rd and 12th here mean he is a lively outsider. He has headed below 50/1 in a lot of places now though and for my money that just isn't big enough. I expect a strong showing from the Scot in a bid to emulate Sandy Lyle here, but I can't take the plunge at those current odds.

I've got one final place on my staking plan to be taken up and one just narrowly edged out was Patrick Reed. He goes well here more often than not and following an encouraging week in Miami will have his supporters.

One who sits at exactly the same price on the exchange than Reed, but 30+ pts bigger than the American with the bookmakers is Justin Rose, and he gets the nod as my final bet. Rose is more likely to come to life in a Ryder Cup year but he also knows performances in Major Championship can and will go a long way to securing a spot on Donald's team.

Last year 6th at the PGA and runner up at the Open were signs that the Englishman is far from done in Majors and if there's one where his experience can count for an awful lot down the back 9, then it's here at Augusta.

He has been twice a runner up here, once to a runaway Jordan Spieth and the other a heartbreaking playoff defeat to Sergio Garcia.

He has been a little bit hit and miss this year but 3rd at Pebble Beach and 8th at Bayhill, both in strong fields are encouraging. With a fine record on the greens around here Rose should benefit from an increase in distance off the tee this year which should make him more competitive in general.

Anyone who watched the Rose episode in Full Swing will know he is determined to win another Major and has plenty still offer at the ripe age of 44. 

1pt each-way J.Rose  100/1  (1/5 8) Betfred