Super Bowl - Winner

We’re all painfully aware that there aren’t many guarantees in life, with the only exceptions seemingly being death, taxes and the Kansas City Chiefs making the Super Bowl.

Last year’s champions are preparing to represent the AFC for the fourth time in five years after again defying the doubters by clinching the AFC Championship in Baltimore, presenting themselves with the opportunity to become the first team to go back-to-back since the New England Patriots in 2004-2005. 

This year Andy Reid’s team will face off against the San Francisco 49ers in a rematch of Super Bowl LIV, when Patrick Mahomes led the Chiefs to a fourth quarter comeback. 

San Francisco have arguably been the most consistent team in the NFC in recent times, reaching the NFC Championship Game four times in the last five years and the aforementioned Super Bowl in 2020. 

San Francisco 49ers vs. Kansas City Chiefs: Route To Super Bowl LVIII 

The Kansas City Chiefs entered the playoffs as the three seed following a season plagued by offensive struggles. However, just when their recent dominance looked under threat, their defence rose to the occasion by not allowing a single team to score more than 27 points all year.

That defence kept the Miami Dolphins - who boast the leagues highest scoring offence - to just 7 points on Wild Card Weekend and stepped up in the second half to facilitate a Divisional Round success over the Buffalo Bills. They again demonstrated their dominance when restricting the Baltimore Ravens to just 10 points in the AFC Championship Game and they will now look to lock down the leagues number two scoring offence. 

The San Francisco 49ers earned the one seed in the NFC and in doing so secured a first round bye, giving them additional time to rest and prepare for their Divisional Round opponents, the Green Bay Packers. The 9ers overcame a seven point third quarter deficit to defeat the Packers and set up a Championship Game showdown with the Detroit Lions, which they also came from behind to win.  

 

San Francisco 49ers vs. Kansas City Chiefs Team and Injury New

The Kansas City Chiefs will have to make do without pass rusher Charles Omenihu and defensive tackle Derrick Nnadi, who are dealing with ACL and triceps injuries respectively.  

All-Pro left guard Joe Thuney is considered unlikely to play due to a pectoral injury. 

The game is also expected to come too soon for running back Jerick McKinnon, who required surgery to rectify a core muscle injury.

The San Francisco 49ers don’t appear to have any significant concerns at this stage

San Francisco 49ers vs. Kansas City Chiefs Prediction 

The San Francisco 49ers have looked a cut above on multiple occasions this season and they’re very hard to slow down when in hitting top gear, as they did in the second half of the NFC Championship Game.

However, their defence has tailed off somewhat as the season has progressed and the Detroit Lions demonstrated that you can indeed run on them.

Isiah Pacheco has become a key part of the Chiefs offence and he will be tasked with taking advantage of any weakness on the ground, which will of course help to open up the passing game where Patrick Mahomes, with the assistance of Travis Kelce and Rashee Rice, can really do some damage.

If the Chiefs can start quickly once again they may prove very hard to catch given their staunch defensive unit that has only allowed a total of 32 second half points in their last 8 games (4 points on average).

Their wealth of Super Bowl experience and proven ability to overcome adversity should not be understated and I would favour them to come out marginally ahead in a relatively low scoring game.

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San Francisco 49ers vs. Kansas City Chiefs Betting Odds

The San Francisco 49ers ascended to Super Bowl favouritism over the course of the regular season and maintained their position following championship weekend.

Kyle Shanahan’s team are a shade of odds-on to lift the Lomabardi trophy.

While the Chiefs are marginally odds against.

Stud running back Christian McCaffrey is currently the bookmakers favourite to score the first touchdown on Sunday having already amassed 25 total touchdowns this season, including two in the Divisional Round and two in the NFC Championship Game. 

Isiah Pacheco’s rushing score kick-started the Chiefs second half comeback against the Philadelphia Eagles last year and the second year running back is the shortest priced Chief in the market.

While Travis Kelce, whose touchdown sparked the Chiefs fourth quarter comeback in Super Bowl LIV and whom also found the end zone in Arizona twelve months ago, sits third in the betting. 

The Chiefs and the Eagles combined for 73 points last year with each teams offence coming to the fore.

However, with the Chiefs offence failing to fire on all cylinders and their defence becoming the dominant unit, this year’s Super Bowl seems unlikely trouble that total.

The total this year is currently set at 47.5 

Patrick Mahomes is a short priced favourite to win a third Super Bowl MVP ahead of 9ers quarterback Brock Purdy, who has proven himself to be anything but irrelevant after being drafted with the very last pick in the 2022 NFL Draft.

The aforementioned Christian McCaffrey is the only other player quoted at a single-figure price.

Team Spread Total (O/U) Winner Odds
San Francisco 49ers +2 47.5 4/5
Kansas City Chiefs +2 47.5 11/10

 

View the full odds for the Super Bowl here.

San Francisco 49ers vs. Kansas City Chiefs Betting Tips

Kansas City Chiefs - Spread +2

The Kansas City Chiefs were underdogs when triumphing over the Philadelphia Eagles last February and they again defied the odds against the Buffalo Bills and Baltimore Ravens en route to this contest.

It feels as though the their offensive struggles during the regular season is still being factored into their price despite them moving the ball a lot more efficiently and keeping the dreaded drops to a minimum in recent weeks.

I’m not sure I’d want to be a bookmaker laying Patrick Mahomes - who is 3-0 in career games against the 49ers - with the points, especially with the Chiefs dominant defence holding their playoff rivals to just 13.7 points on average.

 Their wealth of Super Bowl experience is truly invaluable in what should be a tight game and taking the points seems like the smartest move. 

Rashee Rice - First Touchdown Scorer

The Chiefs have scored a touchdown on their opening drive in each of their last eight playoff games and will naturally aim to get off to the perfect start once again.

As mentioned previously, Isiah Pacheco and Travis Kelce are prominent in the first touchdown scorer market and understandably so. However, the fact that Pacheco and Kelce are such threats clearly won’t be lost on the San Francisco 49ers, who will almost certainly have packages designed to lockdown Kelce in particular. 

It may therefore be worth focussing on a player who can benefit from the attention being drawn elsewhere, something that Rashee Rice has done consistently throughout the second half of the season.

The first year wideout has quickly developed into a go-to target for Patrick Mahomes and he set a franchise record for the most receiving touchdowns by rookie wide receiver (7), which is no small feat in an Andy Reid led offence.

Rice carried his late season form into the Wild Card Round, where he caught 8 of 12 targets for 130 yards and a touchdown - the opening touchdown of the game - against the Miami Dolphins and his ability to create yards after the catch make him a touchdown threat all over the field.