Kansas City Chiefs play Baltimore Ravens for a place in the Super Bowl.
20:10 Sunday
The AFC appeared to be loaded with potential-packed teams when the 104th NFL season got underway in September.
That certainly proved to be the case, so-much-so that the Cincinnati Bengals, who reached the AFC Championship Game in each of the last two years, and the Jacksonville Jaguars, who started the year as odds-on favourites to win the AFC South, both failed to reach the playoffs.
The same cannot be said of reigning world champions the Kansas City Chiefs, who have overcome significant offensive struggles to progress to a sixth consecutive Championship Game.
However, there will be a slight difference this year as - after five years of ‘Arrowhead Invitationals’ - the Chiefs will head to Baltimore on Sunday to tackle a resurgent Ravens team that locked up the one seed with a 13-4 regular season record.
The Ravens and Chiefs boast the top two scoring defenses in the NFL respectively and both have MVP winning quarterbacks who will clash for the fifth time, with the head-to-head record currently 3-1 in favour of Patrick Mahomes.
This will, however, be the first time they have met on a stage this grand and Lamar Jackson, who is the bookmakers favourite to land MVP honours this season, will have home field advantage.
AFC Championship Game Prediction
The old adage of defence winning championships springs to mind given how well the each of these teams have performed defensively during the regular season and I feel it’s unlikely this will be a high scoring affair.
That said, the Ravens offence has arguably been as impressive as their defence this term with Lamar Jackson dealing the ball to Mark Andrews, Odell Beckham Jr, Rashod Bateman and rookie receiver Zay Flowers, in addition to tearing teams apart with his legs.
It’s fair to say they breezed past an improving Houston Texans team in the Divisional Round and they will certainly be more rested than the Chiefs, who have played the Miami Dolphins in the fourth coldest game in NFL history and the Buffalo Bills in a snowy Orchard Park over the last two weeks.
However, you should never overlook experience in games of this nature and the Chiefs are stacked with players who have won it all - some on multiple occasions. Not to mention their offensive mastermind head coach Andy Reid, who is well on his way to Mount Rushmore status.
The emergence of rookie wide receiver Rashee Rice has been invaluable for Kansas City and he, alongside star tight end Travis Kelce and second season running back Isiah Pacheco, have combined for 522 yards of offence during this playoff run as the aforementioned Andy Reid has opened up his postseason playbook.
The turnover battle could prove vital in this contest and the Ravens defence, who led the league with 31 takeaways this year, will be ready to pounce should the Chiefs offence, who turned the ball over 28 times this year, make a mistake.
AFC Championship Game Odds
| AFC Championship | Best Odds | Worst Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Baltimore Ravens | 1/2 | 4/9 |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 15/8 | 8/5 |
AFC Championship Game Picks
Rashee Rice - Over 59.5 Receiving Yards
Rashee Rice has quickly developed into a go-to target for Patrick Mahomes and his ability to gain yardage after the catch has been particularly impressive.
The rookie receiver finished the regular season tied third alongside Tyreek Hill in that metric, just 28 yards shy of leader CeeDee Lamb.
His ability to maximise every catch will be vitally important in this game and I expect him to exceed 59.5 receiving yards, something he has done in six of his last eight games.
Kansas City Chiefs - Spread +4
This game could easily go down to the wire and I would side with experience in such a situation. I am therefore leaning towards the Chiefs winning this game and would suggest taking the points on offer.
Sources: ESPN, NFL, Statmuse
