Following its victory in the Best Film category at the Screen Actors Guild Awards on Sunday, Conclave has seen a major uptick in betting support to win Best Picture at the Oscars.
Over 55% of bets placed on Monday through Oddschecker have backed Conclave to win Best Picture, a sharp increase from the 14% of bets it had received in 2025 prior to this week.
In response to this surge in interest, bookmakers have dramatically cut Conclave’s odds from 16/1 to 5/2, with some firms now offering as short as 2/1.
It can be backed at a best price of 5/2 with Sky Bet.
To put that shift into perspective, Conclave’s implied probability of winning Best Picture has jumped from 5.9% to 28.6% in just 24 hours.
Despite this movement, Anora remains the odds-on favourite, currently priced at 4/7 (63.6% probability) to claim the top prize.
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The Oscars Best Picture Odds
| Film | Odds | Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Anora | 4/7 | 63.6% |
| Conclave | 10/3 | 23.1% |
| The Brutalist | 13/2 | 13.3% |
| A Complete Unknown | 50/1 | 2% |
| Emilia Perez | 66/1 | 1.5% |
Quote from Oddschecker’s Leon Blackman:
"Sunday’s Screen Actors Guild Awards provided yet another twist in the Best Picture race, with Conclave now making a serious case for Oscar glory. After its win at the SAGs, 55% of bets on Oddschecker have backed it to go all the way, leading to a dramatic odds shift from 16/1 to as short as 5/2 in places."
"This year’s Oscars has been one of the most heavily bet-on editions in recent years. Not since 2020 have we seen this level of betting interest, with a real possibility that Sunday’s ceremony could surpass 2019 as our most popular Oscars of the last decade."
