With Pope Francis hospitalized, speculation mounts over his successor - who is the favourite to become the next Pope?
Pope Francis remains hospitalized with double pneumonia, raising questions about his succession.
At 88, his health struggles—including past bouts with bronchitis and surgery—have cast uncertainty over his leadership especially with the upcoming Holy Year.
With a history of respiratory issues and recent cancellations, the Pope faces physical challenges that could impact his leadership through the jubilee, set to end on January 6, 2026.
Reports suggest the Vatican is already preparing for the worst, with speculation intensifying over who might be the next pope.
If Francis steps down or passes away, the College of Cardinals will convene a conclave, where 138 electors will vote in secret within the Sistine Chapel.
A two-thirds majority is required to elect the next pope, with leading contenders including Cardinals Tagle, Turkson, Parolin, and Erdő.
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Next Pope Odds
| Next Pope | Odds | Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Luis Antonio Tagle | 3/1 | 25% |
| Pietro Parolin | 4/1 | 20% |
| Peter Turkson | 5/1 | 17% |
| Peter Erdo | 6/1 | 14% |
Who is the favourite to be the next Pope?
The Filipino cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle is currently the frontrunner, with odds of 3/1, reflecting strong support for a progressive successor to Pope Francis. Tagle, 67, aligns closely with Francis’s vision of a more inclusive Church, having advocated for a softer approach toward marginalized groups. His extensive experience in evangelization and his Asian heritage also make him a compelling choice as Catholicism grows rapidly in Asia.
As the Vatican’s Secretary of State since 2013, Parolin is seen as a strong contender, with 4/1 odds. At 70, he blends diplomatic experience with moderate theological views, making him a potential consensus candidate. His role in Vatican diplomacy and alignment with Francis’s reformist policies position him as a safe choice for continuity.
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Ghana’s Cardinal Turkson, a prominent figure in Church governance, has odds of 5/1. A leading voice for social justice, he represents the growing influence of African Catholics. At 76, his age may work against him, but his Vatican experience and advocacy for economic and environmental reforms could appeal to a wide range of cardinals.
Hungarian Cardinal Erdő, priced at 6/1, is the strongest conservative candidate. A respected canon law scholar and former head of Europe’s bishops, Erdő has consistently defended traditional Catholic doctrine. At 72, he appeals to cardinals seeking a return to the theological conservatism of John Paul II and Benedict XVI.
