Canadian Prime Minister, Mark Carney has called a snap election, who is the favourite to win?
Canada is heading to the polls on April 28, 2025, in a snap federal election called by newly appointed Prime Minister Mark Carney.
Carney, who succeeded Justin Trudeau as Liberal leader in March, is facing off against Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre in what has become a surprisingly tight race.
The election, triggered after Trudeau’s resignation and Carney's rapid ascent, comes amid economic concerns, U.S. trade tensions under President Trump, and a surge in nationalist sentiment.
With the Liberals regaining ground in polls, this high-stakes contest will determine whether Carney’s leadership can secure a fresh mandate or if Poilievre can reclaim momentum.
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Canadian Election Odds
| Most Seats | Odds | Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Liberal | 10/11 | 52% |
| Conservative | 5/4 | 44% |
| Next Government | Odds | Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Liberal Majority | 5/4 | 44% |
| Conservative Majority | 5/2 | 29% |
| Conservative Minority | 7/2 | 22% |
| Liberal Minority | 5/1 | 17% |
Who is the favourite to win the Canadian Election?
The Liberal are the favourites to win the election at 10/11 (52% chance) with bet365 but only narrowly as the Conservatives are behind at 5/4 (44% chance) with Unibet.
The latest odds give the Liberals, under Mark Carney, a narrow advantage in the race for the most seats in Canada’s 343-riding House of Commons.
With a 52% probability, bookmakers see them as slight frontrunners, though the Conservatives, led by Pierre Poilievre, remain close behind at 44%.
This reflects the major political shift since Carney became Prime Minister on March 14, 2025, following Justin Trudeau’s January resignation.
The Liberals had been trailing badly in polls for years—often by double digits to the Conservatives, but the Liberals have rebounded amid rising nationalism, fueled by Trump’s trade tariffs and annexation remarks.
Recent polling averages from CBC News tracker show a near-deadlock, with Liberals at 37.5% and Conservatives at 37.1%.
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Next Canadian Prime Minister Odds
Mark Carney (Liberal Party) became Prime Minister on March 14, 2025, after winning the Liberal leadership with 86% support, replacing Justin Trudeau.
A former Bank of Canada and Bank of England governor, he’s a newcomer to elected politics but brings economic expertise and global credibility.
The Liberals currently hold a 52% chance (10/11 odds) of winning the most seats and a 44% chance (5/4 odds) of securing a majority.
His leadership has revived the party, with polling (CBC: 37.5% Liberal vs. 37.1% Conservative) and projections (338Canada: 150 Liberal seats vs. 149 Conservative) showing a tight race.
Carney’s decision to call a snap election on March 23 leveraged a surge in nationalist sentiment, fueled by U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariffs and annexation rhetoric.
His campaign message—economic stability and Canadian sovereignty—is resonating, especially in Ontario and Quebec, where the Liberals have an electoral edge and a massive 200 seats lie.
Pierre Poilievre (Conservative Party) has led the Conservatives since 2022 and served as an MP since 2004.
Known for his populist stance on economic issues, housing, and government overreach, he has strong support in Western Canada.
The Conservatives have a 44% chance (5/4 odds) of winning the most seats, with a 29% (5/2 odds) shot at a majority and a 22% (7/2 odds) chance of forming a minority.
Poilievre led in polls for nearly three years, riding the frustration with Trudeau's Liberals, but Carney’s rise has made the race much closer.
His “Canada First” messaging still resonates with voters frustrated by inflation and affordability issues and they are still a popualr party.
However, the Conservatives struggle with vote efficiency, often seeing heavy support in concentrated areas.
They need a bigger popular vote lead to translate support into more seats in places like Ontario and Quebec where they have struggled to do so in the past.
