With a fresh face in charge of the Conservatives and after a rocky start for Keir Starmer and the Labour party what are the Conservative odds to win in 2029?
The UK General Election in July 2024 resulted in a historic victory for the Labour Party under Keir Starmer, who became the new Prime Minister, replacing Rishi Sunak and ending 14 year's of conservative leadership.
Labour secured a massive majority, gaining over 400 seats, while the Conservative Party suffered its worst defeat ever, winning only 121 seats.
With Sunak left with little choice but to step down, a leadership contest ensued for the conservatives.
The race featured six initial candidates: Badenoch, Jenrick, James Cleverly, Dame Priti Patel, Mel Stride, and Tom Tugendhat. Through successive rounds of MP voting, Patel, Stride, Tugendhat, and Cleverly were eliminated, leaving Badenoch and Jenrick to face the wider party membership.
It concluded with Kemi Badenoch emerging as the new leader, securing 56.5% of the membership votes to defeat Jenrick.
Meanwhile, the Labour Party had a turbulant start to their time in office with YouGov figures suggesting that after just three months in power, six in ten Britons (59%) disapprove of the government’s record so far, with only one in six approving (18%).
With a fresh face in charge of the Conservative party and Labour popularity already fading, let's take a look at the odds for the next general election.
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Next UK General Election Odds
| Party | Odds | Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Conservatives | 5/4 | 44% |
| Labour | 13/10 | 43% |
| Reform | 9/2 | 18% |
| Liberal Democrats | 50/1 | 2% |
Who is favourite to win the next UK General Election?
The Conservatives have already overtaken Labour in the betting to win the most seats in the next general election in 2029.
The Tories were as long as 5/2 (29% implied chance) a month after the election, when betting markets opened, and Labour were a best price of 4/6 (60% implied chance).
Conservatives have since overtaken them as the 5/4 favourites (44% implied chance) with various bookmakers including William Hill.
Labour are a current best price of 13/10 (43% implied chance) with bet365.
Meanwhile Reform who are led by Nigel Farage, are a best price of 9/2 (Bet Victor) after picking up millions of votes in the general election but only managing to secure five seats in the Commons.
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Nigel Farage Next Prime Minister Odds
| Next Prime Minister | Odds | Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Kemi Badenoch | 2/1 | 33% |
| Nigel Farage | 4/1 | 20% |
| Rachel Reeves | 10/1 | 9% |
| Andy Burnham | 12/1 | 8% |
Nigel Farage is a best price of 2/1 with William Hill to become the next Prime Minister after picking up a 14.3% share of votes in the 2024 general election.
This outcome was attributed to strong support in Brexit-backing areas and frustration with the handling of issues such as immigration, economic stagnation, and public service inefficiencies by the major parties.
60% of bets this week on Reform to win Most Seats at next General Election. Up from 39% in the month prior.
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