What are the chances of Trump winning according to the first batch of exit poll data?
In most states, the outcome of the vote is a foregone conclusion, but guessing the winner of Donald Trump vs Kamala Harris in the swing states is much harder to predict.
The seven swing states you will keep hearing about as the results unfold tonight in the 2024 US Election are Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
So, how is Trump faring in these key states according to the first exit poll?
The first wave of exit polls found that the state of democracy is the most important issue for voters when deciding who to vote for as president ahead of the economy, which was ranked first in the exit poll for every presidential election since 2008.
Among those who voted for Harris, almost six in 10 people ranked the state of democracy as their number one issue, while just one of 10 Trump voters said they cared most about democracy.
Abortion (second most important for Harris voters) and immigration were the next most important issues. One in five of Trump voters said immigration was the top issue.
Foreign policy was the least picked of the five options.
Meanwhile, a CNN exit poll has potentially solidified Trump's position as favourite by revealing only 7% of voters are enthusiastic about the current state of the country; 43% are dissatisfied and 29% are angry.
Betfred
- Huge range of regular promotions
- 24/7 live chat service
- PickYourPunt builder for custom bets
Trump Odds to Win the Election
| US Election Winner | Best Odds | Implied Chance |
|---|---|---|
| Donald Trump | 4/6 | 60% |
| Kamala Harris | 13/8 | 38% |
How likely is Trump to return to office as president having first served from 2017-21?
Well, as things stand, Donald Trump is rated at least 60% likely to win the 2024 US Election even at the best price of 4/6 on AK Bets. He is, however, as short as 8/15 on Betfair.
Kamala Harris, meanwhile, ranges from 11/8 on Ladbrokes (42% likely) to 13/8 (38%) on BetVictor.
When do the polls close?
The first polls close at 23:00 GMT and the last at 06:00 GMT early on Wednesday.
By midnight UK time, polls will be closing in some predictable states including Indiana, Kentucky, South Carolina, Vermont and Virginia. By way of an example, Trump's Republican party are rated 97% likely to win in Indiana according to the betting odds.
When do polls close in the swing states?
Midnight will also see the close of the poll in the crucial state of Georgia, where the winner will get 16 out of 538 under the electoral college system (ECV). You can find the number of ECVs in each of the seven swing states here.
North Carolina is the second of the swing states where polls will close (00:30 GMT), before arguably the biggest in Pennsylvania (01:00), which holds 19 ECVs.
Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona and Nevada polls close at 02:00.
When will we know who has won the US election?
We are potentially just a few hours from finding out who will be the next President of the United States. However, this is not guaranteed because while some states can turn around results quite quickly, it can be a longer process for others.
In 2020, it wasn't until the Saturday after polling day that the result was officially confirmed in the media, with Joe Biden beating Trump.
By contrast, Trump was declared the 2016 winner just a few hours after polls closed (08:00 GMT), while Barack Obama's 2012 victory was projected before midnight on election day.
