Cheltenham Betting Analysis: Accas Crumble With Jonbon and Ballyburn Upsets

Cheltenham Betting Analysis: Accas Crumble With Jonbon and Ballyburn Upsets

We had yet more fireworks on day 2 of Cheltenham Festival as favourites lost out left, right and centre at Prestbury Park.

Day 1 of Cheltenham Festival was all set up for the big four to claim victory with Kopek des Bordes, Majborough, Lossiemouth and Constitution Hill.

Two of those, Kopek des Bordes and Lossiemouth, kept up their end of the bargain but Majborough lost out to Jango Baie in the Arkle and Constitution Hill fell early in the Champion Hurdle.

Day two has proved to be no different when it's come to upsets with Ballyburn and Jonbon both struggling to live up to their billing.

Ballyburn was favourite to win the Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase but that went to Lecky Watson with Jonbon failing in the Champion Chase as second favourite Marine Nationale won big at Prestbury Park.

As a result, bets have been lost all over the place, meaning it's been another good day for the bookies. But how does the data compare to last year? We've been crunching the numbers at oddschecker.

Accas Tumble But Winning Bets Up on 2024 In Opening Two Days of Cheltenham

It may have seemed like a lot of upsets, and it has been, but the numbers on the opening two days represent a similar feel to the 2024 edition of Cheltenham Festival.

Examining oddschecker data, in the first two days of 2024, winners with singles stake £5+ made 13% of betslip clicks, 19% placed and a massive 68% lost. However, fast forward a year and those numbers have slightly improved for punters with 15% winners (singles stake £5+), 21% placed and 64% lost.

The numbers are the same when looking at general stakes, with 16% winners in 2025 compared to 12% in 2024.

The main killers have been the accumulators. Forever high-risk, high-reward, it seems to have been the former when the first two days have been concerned.

A giant 53% of accas placed this week included either Constitution Hill, Jonbon, Majborough or Ballyburn. On top of that, 68% of the money staked on accas also included one of those four, with all four failing to come through.

Just under half of all accumulators placed on ante-post since April 1st, 2024, also featured the quartet of losers, with just over half (54%) of the money staked going on the same foursome.

 

 

Day 3 At Cheltenham Festival Schedule and Favourites

With so many shocks already taking place during the festival, we will surely see more on what promises to be one of the most difficult-to-predict days at Cheltenham.

Below is a list of all the races taking place, as well as the current best prices for each favourtie.

 

 

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