The Ballon d'Or conversation has begun and one name you might not expect is at the centre of it all.
The 2025 Ballon d'Or race is heating up, and it’s shaping up to be one of the most unpredictable contests in recent memory.
While Mohamed Salah and Harry Kane have set the bar with their prolific goal contributions, it’s Barcelona’s Raphinha who has emerged as the wildcard in the conversation.
The Brazilian winger’s electrifying form this season—marked by a blend of goals, assists, and clutch performances—has sparked serious buzz among fans and pundits alike.
With Kylian Mbappé and Erling Haaland also in the mix, and Vinícius Júnior still capable of a late surge, this year’s Ballon d'Or feels wide open.
The final stretch of the season, particularly in the Champions League, could prove decisive in crowning the best player in the world.
Let's take a look at who the bookmakers consider to have the best chance at this point in the season.
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Ballon d'Or 2025 Odds
| Player | Odds | Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Raphinha | 9/4 | 31% |
| Kylian Mbappe | 11/4 | 27% |
| Mohamed Salah | 13/2 | 13% |
| Ousmane Dembele | 10/1 | 9% |
| Lamine Yamal | 10/1 | 9% |
| Jose Vinicius Junior | 12/1 | 8% |
| Harry Kane | 20/1 | 5% |
Who is the favourite to win the Ballon d'Or?
Raphinha is favourite to win the Ballon d'Or at a best price of His odds are currently 9/4 (31% implied probability) with various bookmakers.
Raphinha’s transformation under Hansi Flick at Barcelona has been nothing short of sensational. The Brazilian winger has already bagged 13 goals and 8 assists in La Liga, playing a crucial role in Barcelona’s push for the domestic title.
His Champions League form has been even more impressive, with 11 goals and 5 assists in 10 games, making him one of the tournament’s most effective attackers.
Compare that to Lionel Messi’s iconic 2011-12 Champions League campaign (often cited as a benchmark): Messi had 12 goals and 4 assists in 1048 minutes. Strip out penalties (which Raphinha doesn’t take), and Raphinha’s non-penalty goal involvements actually outshine Messi’s from that season (11 goals, five assists in 835 minutes).
His ability to deliver in big moments—like his hat-trick against Bayern Munich—has made him Barcelona’s go-to player this season.
If Barcelona secure a La Liga and Champions League double, Raphinha would become the first Brazilian to win the Ballon d'Or since Kaká in 2007.
Kylian Mbappe is the second favourite at a best price of 11/4 with Bet Victor.
Despite a somewhat slow starts by his lofty standards at Real Madrid Kylian Mbappe has returned to his usual prolific form.
The French forward has scored 30 goals and provided four assists in all competitions, helping Madrid sit second in La Liga (joint on points with Barcelona).
His Champions League output has been strong too, with seven goals and one assist in 11 starts, helping take Real Madrid to the quarter-finals where they face Arsenal.
Similarly to Raphinha, if he leads Madrid to another Champions League title and adds a La Liga crown, Mbappé would have a strong case to claim his first Ballon d'Or.
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Third favourite is Mohammed Salah at a best price of 13/2 with bet365.
Mohamed Salah, playing for Liverpool, has had a stellar 2024-25 season so far. His stats include 32 goals and 22 assists, totaling 54 goal involvements across all competitions.
This includes 27 goals and 17 assists in the Premier League and 3 goals and 5 assists in the Champions League.
He is five goals clear of the European Golden Boot and is also leading in assists across the top leagues.
Liverpool currently sit 12 points clear at the top of the Premier League, however, their recent departure from the Champions League, League Cup and FA Cup leave question marks over whether Salah will have enough silverware to warrant a Ballon d'Or victory.
