Best MLB Home Run Bets: Can Juan Soto Stay Hot In Minnesota?
Best MLB Home Run Bets: Can Juan Soto Stay Hot In Minnesota?
I looked through all 15 games and found the three home run props I'll be attacking tonight.
We just need to see one go through, and the momentum will carry over. Let's get after it!
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April 15 Best MLB Home Run Props
Matt Mervis to Hit a Home Run (+560) Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds
Matt Mervis has smashed a .364 ISO and wOBA of .403 against righties to start the season. He's also struck out 40% of the time against righties. However, he's in line to face Merrill Kelly of the Diamondbacks, who has struck out just 11.1% of lefties to begin the year.
In addition, Kelly has walked 15.6% of lefties and has allowed a .289 ISO and wOBA of .401 to his first 45 lefties this year. Kelly has induced 29.4% of ground balls but has allowed 36.4% of fly balls and 57.6% of hard contact to lefties this year.
Meanwhile, Mervis has socked 31.6% of fly balls and 26.3% of line drives against righties this year. He's also earned 73.7% of hard contact and a 15.8% barrel percentage against righties.
Let's give Mervis a shot at +560 odds.
Juan Soto to Hit a Home Run (+400) Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds
Juan Soto hasn't looked his best to begin the season. Yet, he hit a home run last night, and that should help him feel more comfortable at the plate moving forward.
He'll battle Bailey Ober of the Minnesota Twins, who has already allowed a .211 ISO and wOBA of .421 to his first 23 lefties. Ober has struck out only 17.4% of lefties and has allowed 46.7% of fly balls with 20% of ground balls induced against lefties.
Beyond that, Ober has allowed 60% of hard contact to lefties to begin the year.
On the other hand, Soto's numbers against righties aren't elite this year. But when you combine last year and this year, Soto still has a .272 ISO and wOBA of .418 with 27.4% of fly balls, a 64.1% hard contact rate, and a 20.1% barrel percentage. Those are elite numbers for the lefty. He's got an exciting matchup against Ober.
Jake Burger to Hit a Home Run (+420) Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds
Jake Burger has smashed a .333 ISO and wOBA of .368 with just 10% of strikeouts against lefties to begin the year. He's hit 75% of hard contact and a 25% barrel percentage in limited opportunities against lefties.
That said, he'll duel Yusei Kikuchi of the Angels. Kikuchi is a left-handed pitcher who has allowed a .273 ISO and wOBA of .375 to 62 righties this season.
Kikuchi has also allowed 53.5% of hard contact and has struck out below 20% of righties this season. The left-hander has even allowed 30.2% of fly balls to righties to begin the year.
Burger has a tremendous matchup that we'll want to exploit.
Best MLB Home Run Prop Bets Today
- Matt Mervis to Hit a Home Run (+560) Click here for the best Diamondbacks vs. Marlins Odds
- Juan Soto to Hit a Home Run (+400) Click here for the best Mets vs. Twins Odds
- Jake Burger to Hit a Home Run (+420) Click here for the best Angels vs. Rangers Odds
MLB ODDS
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Article Author
Jason grew up an avid sports fan. His passion for sports writing grew in high school and he developed a blog that was strictly for New York Sports. From his work, you will quickly realize that he loves looking at games from an analytical and numbers perspective and hopes to provide you with that same perspective in his articles.