MLB Home Run Player Prop Picks Today: Best Hitter HR Props (4/11/2025)

While home runs have been aplenty this season, there are many superstars that have struggled to find the bleachers. Monday's 10-game slate provides plenty of opportunities in the home run market and there are three buy-low candidates that have yet to make noise with the long ball. I believe that's about to change.

Here's how I am betting home runs for this Monday MLB slate:

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MLB Home Run Player Prop Picks Today

Rafael Devers To Hit A Home Run (+420) Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds

Underlying metrics paints a much clearer picture when it comes to Rafael Devers and his early-season woes. His hitless start to the season was well noted, and he’s hitting just .234 with a home run through Boston’s first 17 games of the season. Despite the rollercoaster, Devers has actually been more disciplined at the plate and is hitting the ball as hard as ever. 

While it’s a small sample size, Devers has a career-best 17.5% barrel and 60% hard-hit rate. He has been crushing the baseball, the results have just been suboptimal (1 HR). In all of MLB, Devers ranks in the 89th percentile in barrels and all the way up to the 96th percentile in hard-hit rate. 

Devers now gets a hitter-friendly park at George M. Steinbrenner Field, in a matchup that favors the lefty. In general this season, Steinbrenner Field has allowed the second-most home runs (31). 

Shane Baz takes the mound for the Rays on Monday and while he’s been great in the first two starts, he does rank in the bottom 40% of all pitchers in barrels (9.7%). Baz is prone to allowing hard contact and is a fly ball pitcher. 

He’s also noticeably struggled more against lefties than righties in his career. Last season, across 14 big league starts, 25% of all hits against left-handed hitters left the park. That number dropped to 9% against right-handed hitters. 

Given the field and weather conditions, plus Devers’ underlying metrics, I like buying low on the slugger tonight. 

Bobby Witt Jr. To Hit A Home Run (+420) Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds

Bobby Witt’s power numbers are down this season, and he hasn’t barreled the ball as often, but it’s only a matter of time before the shortstop takes off. While Witt’s barrel rate (10.2%) has dropped nearly 4% to start the season, his hard-hit rate (55%) has jumped seven points. 

With a great matchup on deck in a friendlier ballpark, Witt becomes a buy here. Perhaps one of the worst pitchers being rolled out every fifth day, 38-year-old Carlos Carrasco takes the mound. It’s been just three starts, but Carrasco has been barreled over 20% of the time, has seen his ground ball rate drop significantly – that’ll probably rise back to the mean – and has generated little-to-no whiffs (16%). 

Even dating back to last season, Carrasco really struggled returning from injury. He made just four second-half starts, allowing five home runs across 17 2/3 innings. 

Because Witt has just one home run this season, his price has continually risen. This is a great buy spot on the shortstop, who remains a hit machine. It’s only a matter of time before long ball follows suit for this MVP candidate. 

Vlad Guerrero Jr. To Hit a Home Run (+400) Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds

Somehow, Vlad Guerrero Jr. remains without a home run in the first 16 games of the season. 

His underlying metrics aren’t a concern and in fact, a home run outburst is inevitable. Guerrero has a .300 average (.331 xBA, a career-best), he’s barreling the ball nearly 10% of the time and his hard-hit rate remains over 50% once again this season. 

After a long road trip, Guerrero Jr. gets to return home, where his numbers take a slight improvement - especially in the power department (.970 OPS vs. .912 last year). It’s also a great matchup against a below-average arm in Grant Holmes. 

In his three appearances this season, Holmes has allowed a 13.6% barrel rate. He hasn’t been generating as many swings and misses and his control has been shaky (19.5 BB%). Tack on a hard-hit rate racing toward 50% and a sub-33% ground ball rate, and home runs should begin to pour in if changes aren’t made. 

This is a great matchup for Guerrero Jr. It’s not an if, it’s when will Guerrero break through and find his first home run. I’m willing to take a chance here in a plus matchup on a hitter that has been crushing the ball of late. 

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