College Football Playoff Preview and Predictions: Breaking Down CFP Semifinal Matchups

The College Football Playoff is nearing the final stretch, with only four teams left in the mix. Three of them are northern programs, trying to put an end to the SEC narrative that has dominated college football for years.

None of the squads that earned a first-round bye won a single game, but all were underdogs for a variety of circumstances. While Ohio State has taken over as the clear favorite at -125 odds to win it all, any of these four remaining teams can go all the way at this point. Notre Dame will kick it off at the Orange Bowl with Penn State on Thursday night, followed by Ohio State vs. Texas on Friday night at the Cotton Bowl.

Let's analyze these thrilling semifinal contests below, arming you with all the storylines and odds you need to know for betting on the College Football Playoff.

No. 7 Notre Dame vs. No. 6 Penn State Orange Bowl Preview

Notre Dame and Penn State will square off from Miami, Florida on Thursday night in the first College Football Playoff Semifinal game. Notre Dame is 1.5-point favorite, and the total is 45.5.

Notre Dame vs. Penn State Date, Time, and Where To Watch

• Date: January 9, 2024
• Time: 7:30 pm ET
• Where To Watch: ESPN

Notre Dame vs. Penn State CFP Semifinal Prediction: Orange Bowl

The Penn State Nittany Lions will go for glory on Thursday night, trying to win their first National Championship since 1986. James Franklin has come up short in big games throughout his decade-long tenure, and will try to get over the hump. He's 4-19 in his career against top-10 teams, and even worse against the top-5. Tonight is the night to change the narrative around him and Penn State with an equally-matched opponent.

The game will be played in the trenches tonight, as these northern powerhouses love to run the rock. Penn State has Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen as a two-headed monster in the backfield, while the Irish have the speediest player in Jeremiyah Love, as well as a more mobile QB in Riley Leonard. Whoever can impose their will on the other in the first half of this game is going to have a significant leg up down the stretch as they churn the clock.

Penn State boasts a slightly better rush defense, coming at 9th in the country and allowing 101 yards per game on the ground. The Irish are a bit further back at 32nd, and allowing 132 ypg. In a game that is sure to be a ground and pound battle for a large portion, this could make up the difference.

Both teams have outstanding linebacker play, but Penn State is slightly better in the front seven, depending if Abdul Carter plays. He will be the x-factor on defense, but is dealing with a shoulder injury ahead of the semifinal after missing most of the Boise State game. Carter has 11 sacks to lead the defense by a wide margin, and will be another obstacle for the Irish to deal with in addition to Dani Dennis-Sutton, Kobe King, and Dominic DeLuca.

The public is hammering the Irish at -1.5, with 66% of the bets coming in on Notre Dame. The Irish have looked like a well-oiled machine since their early-season loss to Northern Illinois in September. After that aberration, it's been strictly business for Notre Dame's team, as they've refused to slip up again. They've played a slightly easier schedule than Penn State's Big Ten foes, but they are both equally battle-tested at this point in the season.

Who will win it all? Click here the College Football Playoff Championship odds

No. 8 Ohio State vs. No. 5 Texas Cotton Bowl Preview

Ohio State and Texas will square off from AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas on Friday night in the second College Football Playoff Semifinal game. Ohio State is 6-point favorite, and the total is much higher at 53.5.

Ohio State vs. Texas Date, Time, and Where To Watch

• Date: January 10, 2024
• Time: 7:30 pm ET
• Where To Watch: ESPN

Ohio State vs. Texas CFP Semifinal Prediction: Cotton Bowl

The Ohio State Buckeyes are on an absolute roll right now. Ever since they lost to Michigan in their final regular season game, it's like a switch was flipped in the OSU locker room. Ryan Day heard the doubters and completely revamped his strategy, and his program is looking like the true CFP National Championship favorite coming into the semifinal round.

The Buckeyes have been airing it out to Jeremiah Smith and Emeka Egbuka at an astronomical rate, and no one can stop them. They blew the Oregon defense to smithereens in the first half of the Rose Bowl after dismantling Tennessee at The Shoe just a week prior. Will Howard is finally hitting his stride after an up-and-down season, saving his best play for last with these receivers. Chip Kelly has improved the play-calling since the Michigan disaster, and quite literally everything is clicking for Ohio State all of a sudden.

Texas is faced with the impossible task of slowing down this offense, but they do have the defensive chops to put up a fight. They are rocking the third-best scoring defense in the nation at just 14.5 points per game allowed, even with an SEC schedule. It's not quite as good as the No. 1 Ohio State defense that gives up only 13 ppg, but it's pretty close. They will have to avoid making the same mistakes as the impressive Tennessee and Oregon defenses that looked like JV teams out there against the Buckeyes.

On offense, Quinn Ewers has been great at times, but a little too inconsistent to lead them all the way to the national title. Texas has struggled to come up with clutch plays in some spots, nearly losing the game to Arizona State on New Year's Day if not for a blown coverage on 4th and long. They will have to be much more efficient against the Buckeyes, and based on recent performance, they certainly aren't the side coming in with the momentum. It will be an uphill battle for Steve Sarkisian's Longhorns on Friday night at the Cotton Bowl.

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