College Football Playoff Preview and Predictions: Breaking Down the First Round Matchups

The College Football Playoff is here at long last, with eight teams getting their first taste of the action this weekend. While the first four conference champions anxiously await on their bye, they'll get a good look at the rest of the field from some of the best venues in college football.

We have four matchups in the first round, kicking it off from Snowy South Bend on Friday night. Snow has been falling all day, and the Fighting Irish will welcome the Hoosiers to Notre Dame Stadium. Both teams play a physical brand of football with an emphasis on the rushing attack, so this should be a good way to open up the postseason in the frigid temps.

Let's tackle these contests below, feeding you with all the storylines and odds you need to know for betting on the College Football Playoff.

No. 10 Indiana vs. No. 7 Notre Dame Preview

Indiana and Notre Dame will square off from South Bend, Indiana on Friday night in the opening game of the College Football Playoff First Round. Notre Dame is 7-point favorite, and the total is 50.

Indiana vs. Notre Dame Date, Time, and Where To Watch

• Date: December 20, 2024
• Time: 8:00 pm ET
• Where To Watch: ESPN, ABC

Indiana vs. Notre Dame Prediction

The Indiana Hoosiers arrive to this game after finally suffering their first loss towards the end of the regular season against Ohio State. They were blown away by the Buckeyes in the top-5 showdown, making several errors on special teams that led to a nearly four-touchdown blowout. While it wasn't the most surprising thing ever, given that they came in as a double-digit underdog after playing the weakest Big Ten competition all year, it was still a shock to their system. The Hoosiers bounced back nicely the week after that, annihilating Purdue 66-0.

On the other side, the Notre Dame Fighting Irish have been exceptional since their early-season blemish. The Irish dropped a shocking game to Northern Illinois in the second week of the season, falling 16-14 at home in a game where they simply couldn't find any offense. Marcus Freeman's team was smeared and shamed throughout the CFB world for the next month, with many saying they didn't deserve to even sniff the playoffs with a loss like that on the resume.

While the losses occurred at opposite ends of the season, these teams are a lot more similar than they are different. They've beat up on lesser competition for most of the season, and were only truly tested once or twice. Both teams have a strength of schedule outside the top 60, and likely wouldn't be in this high of seeding if there weren't a flurry of losses in the SEC to end the season.

The matchup to watch here will be the top-ranked Indiana rushing defense against the vaunted Notre Dame run game. QB Riley Leonard likes to use his legs, and RB Jeremiyah Love is one of the most athletic backs in the country. Can Curt Cignetti's defense pony up in the snow and stop the Fighting Irish from running all over them? The Irish are top-10 in rushing, going over over 225 yards per game on the ground alone. Meanwhile, Indiana only gives up 76 ypg, albeit against some weaker offenses. Ohio State managed to break over 100 against them, but didn't get much more than that. If Indiana can force the Irish to get behind the sticks early in the cold, they'll have a solid chance on the road. Keep an eye on the trenches in this matchup.

Who will win it all? Click here the College Football Playoff Championship odds

No. 11 SMU vs. No. 6 Penn State Preview

SMU and Penn State will square off from State College, Pennsylvania on Saturday afternoon in the second game of the College Football Playoff First Round. Penn State is 8-point favorite, and the total is 52.

SMU vs. Penn State Date, Time, and Where To Watch

• Date: December 21, 2024
• Time: 12:00 pm ET
• Where To Watch: TNT, Max

SMU vs. Penn State Prediction

The knock on the Nittany Lions has been that James Franklin can't win the big games. They have two losses on the year, both to top teams in Ohio State and Oregon. While they came close in both, they were never really in control of either, and have struggled to get off to a hot start. Even with an early lead in the Ohio State game at home, they quickly squandered it by halftime.

Penn State is somewhat of the public side, getting 57% of the spread bets and over 79% of the moneyline action. Normally we wouldn't roll with a team getting a lot of action, but these College Football Playoff first round games are a different animal than seen before. The home teams have quite an edge with their weather advantage, as well as their advancement through the bracket. Penn State has the best path in the playoffs, and it isn't close. Games against SMU and Boise State as their first two makes them -190 favorites just to reach the semifinal, and its looking highly likely. Oregon may have beaten them in the Big Ten Championship, but they got saddled with a much worse path having to go through some combination of Ohio State, Tennessee, and Texas just to get to the same spot.

The test for the Mustangs will be what kind of start they can get off to against the Nittany Lions. SMU showed up tardy against Clemson in the ACC Championship, looking completely overmatched and committing unforced errors left and right. They were down by almost 20 points at halftime before even realizing what happened. Clemson let them back in the game late, but Penn State's defense won't be so forgiving. Playing in a white out in Happy Valley is a different experience than a half-empty conference championship game, making it a true road tilt in the freezing temps. This team from Texas hasn't played in anything colder than 40 degrees this year, and is now gearing up for a 23 degrees afternoon with a freezing wind chill. As seen in the Notre Dame game, these campus playoff matchups make a difference, and the cold weather showdowns are no joke. This isn't the NFL-domed stadium playoffs of old to open the first round, and the visiting teams are getting a taste of that early. Keep an eye on the first few series for each team, because PSU could run away with it if they get their proper start at home.

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No. 12 Clemson vs. No. 5 Texas Preview

Clemson and Texas will clash from Austin, Texas on Saturday afternoon in the third game of the College Football Playoff First Round. Texas has grown to a 13-point favorite, and the total is 50.5.

Clemson vs. Texas Date, Time, and Where To Watch

• Date: December 21, 2024
• Time: 4:00 pm ET
• Where To Watch: TNT, Max

Clemson vs. Texas Prediction

This Clemson vs. Texas matchup is one of the more intriguing first round matchups, coming up short to probably only the Ohio State game later tonight. We're getting two blue-blood programs squaring off in a fight to see who's the best orange team, and catching a taste of Clemson as a huge playoff underdog. They've been to the CFP seven times since it launched in 2014, and Dabo Swinney's staff has a lot of experience here. But they've never had to play a road playoff game before in the old format, and they certainly don't have the same talent level as the Longhorns this year.

Can Dabo and Clemson cook up something to upset the Longhorns as two-touchdown underdogs on the road?

Click here to read our full Clemson vs. Texas prediction, pick against the spread, and latest odds for this College Football Playoff First Round game.

No. 9 Tennessee vs. No. 8 Ohio State Preview

Tennessee and Ohio State will duke it out from Columbus, Ohio on Saturday night in the final game of the College Football Playoff First Round. Ohio State is hovering around a touchdown favorite, and the total is a bit lower than the others at 46.5.

Tennessee vs. Ohio State Date, Time, and Where To Watch

• Date: December 21, 2024
• Time: 8:00 pm ET
• Where To Watch: ABC, ESPN

Tennessee vs. Ohio State Prediction

The Shoe will be the site for Tennessee vs. Ohio State, and the Volunteers fans are not happy that they were seemingly snubbed out of hosting the game. Ohio State suffered an embarrassing defeat at the hands of the Michigan Wolverines to end the regular season, knocking them out of the Big Ten Championship and sending ripples through the playoff seeding. Many thought the Buckeyes had lost their chance at being a home team after the epic collapse, but they just edged out the Vols.

Now, it's put up or shut up time for Ryan Day and Ohio State. If he loses this game, it's not out of the realm of possibilities that he's fired shortly after. Others think he has to go all the way to a National Championship just to save his job. Day has one of the most talented rosters in the history of college football, between the defensive stars and the electric skill players at RB and WR. There is first-round draft picks all over the field, yet they can't seem to win the big games. They came up short against Oregon on the road earlier this year, which was an understandable loss that they could've got revenge from. But they were stunned by Michigan at home, losing their chance at revenge and a first round bye. Now, they are forced right into the thick of the field and have to make a statement to turn the momentum around.

The Ohio State offense struggled immensely against the Wolverines, failing to convert in the red zone with numerous chances. They missed two chip shot field goals after getting turned away on offense, Will Howard had two interceptions, and the Buckeyes couldn't find more than 75 rushing yards against the Michigan front on over 25 carries, despite playing with some of the best running backs in college football. With all of that pressure now stacked against them to recover from this performance, they have to do it against an underrated Tennessee defense tonight. The Vols gave up just 14.9 points per game in a tough SEC schedule, making them the fourth-best scoring defense in the country.

We're going to see another frigid game on Saturday night, similar to the Notre Dame and Penn State weather setups. It'll be less than 25 degress in Columbus, giving the Buckeyes even more of a home field advantage. Tennessee may not be the warmest place in the country, but the Vols certainly haven't played in below-freezing temps this year, and the edge stays with the Big Ten here. With two of the top-four scoring defenses in the country playing in an icebox, we'd have to recommend the under again in this one, similar to the Texas game but for slightly different reasons. The Buckeyes have a lot to prove, and a lot of pressure their shoulders. They may struggle to get firing out of the gate early, looking to avoid making any egregious mistakes. Meanwhile, Tennessee brings in a freshman QB to the biggest game of his life in the frozen tundra, and the nerves will be prevalent for his offense as well. The offenses may heat up later in the night, but it should be a slow start that favors the defenses to capitalize.

Looking for odds on all of the First Round matchups? Click here complete College Football Playoff odds