Sam Eaton breaks down the Eurovision 2024 Betting markets, and makes his picks for the Grand Final.
Eurovision 2024
You lose a lot of respect in certain circles when you admit Eurovision is your favourite betting event of the year, but... there’s good reasoning behind this.
Unlike some sports, there are fact-based statistics available to help aid your betting decisions, and these data points are rarely wrong.
Eurovision World’s online poll has correctly predicted the winner every year since 2017. Oddschecker facilitates thousands of Eurovision bets and hosts a load of global betting data around the event. The most popular bet on Eurovision the weekend before final has won every time since 2017.
See the results below:
| Year | Poll Winner (% of votes) | Most Bet Country (Weekend Before Final) | Eurovision Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | Sweden (17%) | Sweden | Sweden |
| 2022 | Ukraine (9%) | Ukraine | Ukraine |
| 2021 | Italy (9%) | Italy | Italy |
| 2019 | Netherlands (21%) | Netherlands | Netherlands |
| 2018 | Israel (16%) | Israel | Israel |
| 2017 | Portugal (16%) | Portugal | Portugal |
There you go, the data is there for us all to see! However, there are a couple of side points for this year’s Eurovision...
- The current poll winner and most bet the weekend for the final don’t match up.
- Eurovision World changed their poll so you can’t vote on the country you reside in.
Despite this, the data is there to make a fairly informed Eurovision bet in 2024.
Croatia is currently winning the Eurovision World poll with 14% of votes, however, that percentage is being eaten up by Switzerland and Italy. At the time of writing the poll has 182k votes, and the percentages are:
| Country | % Of Votes |
|---|---|
| Croatia | 14 |
| Switzerland | 11 |
| Italy | 11 |
| Netherlands | 7 |
As for betting via oddschecker last weekend, Netherlands top the pile, which they’ve done for some time.
Netherlands took 17% of bets last weekend in the Eurovision winner's market.
Eurovision Final Betting Tips
Advised Bet: Netherlands 14/1 (at bet365) - 1pt each-way (four places)
If you aren’t a Eurovision fan, I urge you not to listen to Netherlands Eurovision song, as you won’t like it at all... However, the song has dominated the betting, is fourth on the Eurovision World poll, and has dominated the Wiwibloggs poll (looks like it might have been hacked by the Dutch).
Also the song has 23m YouTube views, compared to Croatia’s 5.8m.
Advised Bet: Croatia at 6/5 (Sporting Index) - 3pt win
I can’t ignore the poll even with the odds being so rubbish. They top the poll and rank well in the betting, so they have to be a bet.
Advised Bet: Switzerland 4/1 (at Betway) - 1pt each-way (four places)
This selection might get some criticism, but hear me out... Switzerland are 1/3 to finish in the top four. Which means a £20 bet returns £6.67 in profit.
However, going £10 each-way at 17/4 means you could walk away with £51 if they win, and a small -£1.50 loss if they finish in the top four.
Remember the stats are there, one of these three countries will win Eurovision.
What about United Kingdom & Ireland?
Advised Bet: Ireland 13/5 1pt Top Five Finish
Advised Bet: United Kingdom 7/2 1pt Top 10 Finish
I think the UK could potentially scrape a Top 10 position, and based on the betting at the weekend, I think Ireland could finish in the Top Five.
Ireland have only got 2% of the vote on the Eurovision World poll, but Italy finished 4th last year with just 2% of the votes.
