Sam Eaton’s Eurovision final tips before Semi-Final 2.
Eurovision 2024 Winner
Going into Eurovision 2024 Semi-Final 2 tonight, a quick reminder that Eurovision World’s online poll has correctly predicted the winner of the contest every year since 2017.
Here at oddschecker we facilitate thousands of Eurovision bets and host a load of insightful global betting data around the event. In fact, the most popular bet on Eurovision the weekend before the final has won every time since 2017.
| Year | Poll Winner (% of votes) | Most Bet Country (Weekend Before Final) | Eurovision Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | Sweden (17%) | Sweden | Sweden |
| 2022 | Ukraine (9%) | Ukraine | Ukraine |
| 2021 | Italy (9%) | Italy | Italy |
| 2019 | Netherlands (21%) | Netherlands | Netherlands |
| 2018 | Israel (16%) | Israel | Israel |
| 2017 | Portugal (16%) | Portugal | Portugal |
There are a couple of side points for this year’s Eurovision...
- The current poll winner and most bet the weekend for the final don’t match up.
- Eurovision World changed their poll so you can’t vote on the country you reside in.
Despite this, the data is there to make a fairly informed bet on the winner of Eurovision 2024.
Eurovision Final Tips 2024
Croatia is currently winning the Eurovision World poll with 15% of votes; however, that lead is narrowing to Switzerland and Italy (both 11%). At the time of writing the poll has 214,003 votes, so serves as a strong indicator of public opinion.
As for betting via oddschecker in the last seven days, Netherlands are only usurped by this week’s big market movers, Ireland (in from 28/1 on Monday).
Netherlands took 17% of bets in the Eurovision winner market last weekend and account for more than 10% across the last seven days (bettered only by Ireland’s 13%). Despite that, the Netherlands’ price to win has now drifted to 25/1 on BetMGM UK.
Eurovision Tip: Netherlands 28/1 1pt each-way (four places)
After first advising at 14/1 in my Tuesday column, I'll double down on Netherlands who make their Eurovision 2024 bow in Semi-Final 2.
If you aren’t a Eurovision fan, I urge you not to listen to the song, as you won’t like it at all...
However, the song remains strong in the betting and fourth on the Eurovision World poll.
Eurovision Tip: Croatia 6/5 3pt win
I couldn’t ignore the poll even with the odds being so rubbish (odds on with most bookmakers but still 6/5 on Midnite). They top the poll and rank well in the betting, so they have to be a bet.
Eurovision Tip: Switzerland 17/4 1pt each-way (four places)
Another bet first advised on Tuesday night (now shortened into 7/2) and one that I expected to garner some criticism on social media due to the relatively short price.
Switzerland are now 2/5 for a Top 4 Finish (implied 71% chance), which means a £20 bet would return £8.00 in profit.
However, going £10 each-way (advised at 17/4 but now only 7/2) means a healthy profit should they win and only a small loss if they finish, as expected, in the top four.
