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The Dallas Mavericks and Sacramento Kings will butt heads on Wednesday night in the second Western Conference Play-In Game. The winner will advance to a knockout game with the Memphis Grizzlies for the chance to climb into the final playoff spot. Jason Radowitz thinks Klay Thompson and the Mavs could pull the upset, and targets a few props in his Mavericks vs. Kings same-game parlay.
ANALYSIS

NBA Play-In Tournament Same-Game Parlay Pick: Back This +563 SGP for Mavericks vs. Kings

The Dallas Mavericks were on pace to make the NBA postseason behind Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving. However, the Mavericks made a blockbuster deal that changed everything.

The Mavericks sent Luka Doncic to the Los Angeles Lakers for Anthony Davis, emphasizing defense as a priority. Once Davis debuted with the Mavericks, he got injured and missed most of the second half. Meanwhile, Kyrie Irving carried the Mavericks without Doncic or Davis there to help. Yet, he tore his ACL and is out for the year.

Ultimately, this season couldn't go any worse for the Dallas Mavericks. They're not even in position for a lottery pick and need back-to-back wins to make the playoffs. But even if Dallas makes the playoffs, the Mavericks would have to face the No. 1-seeded Oklahoma City Thunder.

Nico Harrison spoke to the media after the regular season concluded and suggested he still has no regrets about making the trade. If Irving and Davis had stayed healthy this season, the sky would have been the limit. But that's not the case and something Dallas will have to live with this year.

That said, the Mavericks are still deep with plenty of offensive and defensive talent. There's still some hope.

Below, I've added a same-game Parlay for tonight's 9-10 Western Conference Play-In Tournament game.

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Dallas Mavericks vs. Sacramento Kings Odds

  • Spread: Mavericks +4.5 (-108), Kings -4.5 (-112)
  • Moneyline: Mavericks (+164), Kings (-196)
  • Total: Over 213.5 (-110), Under 213.5 (-110)

Dallas Mavericks vs. Sacramento Kings Date, Time, and Where to Watch

  • Date: April 16, 2025
  • Game Time: 10:00 pm ET
  • Where to Watch: ESPN

Click here for latest Mavericks vs. Kings Odds

NBA Same Game Parlay - Dallas Mavericks vs. Sacramento Kings

Leg 1: Dallas Mavericks Moneyline (+164)

While the Kings have defeated the Mavericks three times this season, Sacramento doesn't have the most reliable defense.

The Kings are solid on the defensive glass, allowing only 25.8% of offensive rebounds. However, the Kings have also allowed a 56.1% effective field goal percentage. That rate ranks 27th in the NBA.

In addition, the Kings have allowed a 20 free-throw rate and 116.6 points per 100 possessions, which is among the league's bottom 10.

Meanwhile, Dallas has scored 114.9 points per 100 possessions but should end up with some quality looks from the field. Dallas has already added a 55.2% effective field goal percentage and has earned a 20.1 free throw rate. That should keep the offense flowing.

I'll take the Mavericks to escape with a win tonight.

Leg 2: Keon Ellis Under 9.5 Points (-136)

Keon Ellis has scored no more than nine points in three of his last four games for the Sacramento Kings. Ellis has added at least 10 points in just 33% of games this season. Additionally, he's recorded at least 10 points in just two of his last seven games against the Mavericks.

The Mavericks haven't performed super well defensively this season. However, against shooting guards, the Mavericks rank 10th in the NBA in points allowed to shooting guards. Shooting guards have had difficulty finding three-point attempts against the Mavericks,. In addition, shooting guards don't get to the foul line much against Dallas.

The Mavericks rank fourth in free-throw attempts allowed to shooting guards and third in three-pointers made against shooting guards.

Ultimately, Ellis has shot just 45.3% from the field and 32.5% from downtown over the last 10 games. It's nothing to get excited about.

Leg 3: Klay Thompson Under 2.5 Assists (-146)

Klay Thompson has earned at least three assists in just one of his last 10 games. He even failed to earn one assist in three of his last 10 games. Meanwhile, he'll battle a Kings defense that ranks 10th in assists allowed to shooting guards this season. Furthermore, Thompson has averaged 2.7 potential assists per game over the last 10 games. He'd need to add an assist on all of his potential opportunities tonight to even land three assists, on average. In addition, Thompson doesn't play many minutes. Over the last 10 games, the veteran guard has averaged below 25 minutes perper game. Take the Under.

Mavericks vs. Kings Same-Game Parlay (+563) (Bet $100 to Collect $663)

  • Leg 1: Dallas Mavericks Moneyline (+164)
  • Leg 2: Keon Ellis Under 9.5 Points (-136)
  • Leg 3: Klay Thompson Under 2.5 Assists (-146)

NBA ODDS

Article Author

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Jason grew up an avid sports fan. His passion for sports writing grew in high school and he developed a blog that was strictly for New York Sports. From his work, you will quickly realize that he loves looking at games from an analytical and numbers perspective and hopes to provide you with that same perspective in his articles.

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