A Complete Guide on How to Bet on NFL Games
The NFL season may be short compared to many other professional leagues, but it offers action-packed drama all the way. From selecting a team to cover a point spread to forecasting which team will be crowned Super Bowl champions, here’s everything you need to know about how to bet on NFL games and futures.
Understanding The Terminology
No guide on how to bet on NFL games and long-term outright markets would be complete without a rundown of the terminology you’ll encounter.
Betting Against the Spread
Known as “ATS”, Against The Spread betting is handicap betting on an NFL game. An example would be the Dallas Cowboys -4.5 at 4/5 odds, which means the Cowboys would have to win by a margin of at least five points. On the flip side, the Detroit Lions at +2.5 for a quote of 23/20 would mean that they couldn’t lose by a margin of more than two points. If it’s a full-point spread bet (like -5) and the winning margin is exactly five points, a push is created (a tie) and the bet is returned. Half points on spread options can avoid the push.
Moneyline Odds & Bets
Moneyline bets focus on the winner of a game outright. To understand NFL bets, it’s good to learn how to read Moneyline odds. Moneyline options are typically presented in this format – for example, the Washington Commanders +152 against the Baltimore Ravens -180.
The team with the negative number is the favored team to win the game, while the -180 in this example represents how much of a stake is required to win 100 back. On the other side, the +152 underdog quote is the amount you would win for every 100 staked. It’s not necessary to bet exactly 100; the nfl odds will still be relative to any stake.
Over/Under Betting
The next popular market our NFL betting guide will explore is the Over/Under market, commonly called Totals. One of the main Totals markets that bettors may choose to bet on would be the total points scored in an NFL game by both teams. Here, bettors pick a line depending on how high or low of a scoring game they are expecting. An example would be a 59.5 selection, meaning that at least 60 points have to be scored for the bet to win.
Parlay Bets
Parlays are accumulators, typically containing up to 12 selections. For an example of how to bet NFL games with parlays, the Browns @ -102, Eagles @ -116, Bears @ -180 and Jaguars @ -154 could be combined into one Parlay bet. For the Parlay bet to win, all selections have to be successful. Parlays are riskier bets because they involve more variables, but the payoff is that the odds accumulate to a bigger price.
Prop Bets
Prop bets are a big part of NFL betting as they can be extremely varied, covering a wide range of topics. The most common type of prop betting, called player prop bets, focus on individual player performances. A player prop bet could be how many rushing yards a player makes in a game, or how many completed catches a receiver makes. Other props include everything from the longest field goal to the total turnovers in a game and which team will score first.
Futures Bets
Futures bets are long-term selections, and the biggest future market of all is the Super Bowl, where the best nfl odds can usually be found during the pre-season. Other popular futures bets include selecting the winners of each division, or who will claim the conference titles. It is also possible to find futures betting markets for who will be named the Rookie of the Year, MVP and Coach of the Year.
Special Markets
Digging even deeper into professional football betting, there are special markets to explore, which are somewhat similar to prop bets but tend to be a little more creative and longer-priced selections, such as:
- Chicago Bears to score in all four quarters
- Each team to score 1+ rushing touchdown and 1+ passing touchdown
- Nominated quarterback to throw 4+ passing touchdowns in a game.
Teaser Bets
A good way to explain Teaser Bets in this NFL betting guide is by considering them an extension of Parlays. With a teaser bet, you can increase or decrease the original line found for totals or spreads. For example, if a team is at -6.5 on the point spread, it would be possible to adjust it by a point down to 5.5 odds to eliminate some risk, which is the most common use for teaser bets. In return, the potential payout from the sportsbook would be reduced. All the adjusted lines from teaser selections are then combined into one bet (parlay).
Key Concepts and Reading NFL Betting Lines
The next piece of advice when it comes to how to bet on NFL options is to learn how to read sports betting lines so you can instantly try to spot value.
Odds and Payouts
NFL odds are reflective of an implied probability, or what chance the outcome has of happening, at least according to the sportsbook. Without understanding the value of exactly what a -130 Moneyline option is (an implied probability of 56.5%), it will be hard to gauge whether it’s the right bet for you. The odds determine the risk of a certain payout return.
Spread vs Moneyline
The Moneyline is a two-way market from which you pick a team to win. Point spread betting is a more advanced variation of that due to the extra accuracy required, and it is important to know how to bet on NFL games. In games where there is a heavy favorite, there is probably not going to be enough value in the Moneyline to back a team.
Therefore, point spread bets is a great alternative because you pick the line according to how much you think a team will win or lose by. As a bettor, you don’t have to choose exclusively between one or the other; both approaches can be used for regular NFL betting.
NFL Betting Strategies
Next in this NFL betting guide, let’s dip into the waters of strategies. A good strategy comes from diligent research and analysis. It’s also helpful to track the progress of your betting strategy so you have a historical record and can spot areas where things need to be altered and improved.
Expert Picks
Find expert betting tips that align with your basic strategy, then build on them by conducting further research on your own. You should never rely solely on expert picks to tell you what to do; no tipster is right all the time! Instead, take the information offered to see if it strengthens your bet or provides insight into why you may want to skip it.
Expected Value Bets
Expected Value Betting is one of the most important areas of learning how to bet on the National Football League. Value Bets are the difference between the bettor’s expectations of an outcome and the sportsbook’s prediction. If the Las Vegas Raiders are priced up at +125 (a 44.4% implied probability) but you expected to see them at a +110 price (52.4% implied probability), it means that the sportsbook has, in your estimation, undervalued them.
Public Betting Percentages
Where the money is going can be a good indicator of an outcome because it’s considered an informed show of public support. Ahead of the Super Bowl, for example, there may be a crush of bets on the Kansas City Chiefs to win. However, the more that comes in on the Chiefs, especially from large bets, the more the sportsbook will shift the line to make the underdogs more appealing by cutting further value off the original Chiefs’ price. In this way, public support can skew betting markets.
NFL Live Betting
The major advantage of NFL live betting is that forecasts can be judged based on what is happening on the field. For example, when watching a game and seeing QB Joe Burrow failing to connect or throwing unprecedented interceptions, live sports betting gives bettors a chance to react to that.
Instead of random, reactionary bets during the game, plan out scenarios based on what could happen. If the San Francisco 49ers are backed in the pre-game Moneyline, what’s the plan in live betting if they are trailing by more than seven points at halftime? Live betting can also be used as a standalone strategy, such as by waiting as long as possible with no more than seven points on the scoreboard before snapping up a total points option.
Line Shopping
Another key element of how to bet on NFL games is to shop for the best prices. Because markets are competitive, you may find the Cincinnati Bengals at a quote of -120 and -118, for example, at different sportsbooks.
There’s not going to be huge differences in odds, but across several bets, those small margins can add up. Also, look for any relevant sportsbook offers. One may have an enhanced price special on a bet that you were going to make, or perhaps there is Parlay insurance that will add value to your bet.
Best Bets using Odds Comparison against Sportsbooks
Use an odds comparison site to look for the best odds. By aggregating the latest prices from various sportsbook sources, a comparison tool makes it easy to spot which bookie has the New England Patriots best priced in a -4.5 point spread, for example.
Home Field Advantage
With extra support in the stands, no long travel involved, and only the need for familiarity with playing conditions, some bettors rely on expected boosted performances by home teams and lean heavily on the Spread market for it. However, home field advantage has been declining in the NFL for years now as preparations by visiting teams have improved. Now, home advantage is typically worth around only a three-point advantage, and those three points are worked into a selection on the point spread.
Placing a Bet
After studying pregame form or projecting your Super Bowl pick and checking sportsbooks for the best nfl odds, the last thing to do is make the bet.
Finding a sportsbook
You will need a sportsbook to bet at, and with so many available, it’s always a good idea to check out sportsbook review sites. These will break down the details of different sportsbooks, such as how much of an edge they work into their NFL lines, what the market coverage is for games, and factors such as mobile betting apps and promotions.
It’s worth spending some time checking out some of the most highly recommended ones to get a feel for the site, how it operates, whether it carries your preferred markets, and what payment options are available. Stick with reputable, licensed and regulated sites that have a proven track record in the industry because they tend to have better customer support.